U.S. 2011 wheat, corn carryover up, soybean down

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 858 million bus, up 10 million bus from 848 million bus forecast in November but down 118 million bus, or 12%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 832 million bus, up 5 million bus from 827 million bus in November, based on a like increase in imports, but down 876 million bus, or 51%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 165 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 11%, from 185 million bus in November, based on a like increase in exports, but up 14 million bus, or 9%, from 151 million bus in 2010.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2010-11 carryover numbers were above trade expectations of 849 million bus for wheat and 803 million bus for corn but slightly below estimates of 167 million bus for soybeans.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,208 million bus in 2010, unchanged from the November forecast but down 10 million bus from 2,218 million bus a year earlier. U.S. 2010-11 wheat imports were projected at 110 million bus, unchanged from November but down 9 million bus from last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,294 million bus, unchanged from November but up 301 million bus, or 10%, from 2,993 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,250 million bus, unchanged from November but up 369 million bus, or 42%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10.

“Total exports are unchanged,” the U.S.D.A. said, “but small shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of hard red spring and white wheat and lower projected exports of hard red winter and durum.”

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 930 million bus, down 10 million bus from November but up 13 million bus from 917 million bus in 2009-10.

“Projected food use is lowered 10 million bus on the latest mill grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which indicate flour extraction rates that are higher than the long-term average for the third straight year,” the U.S.D.A. said. “With historically high wheat prices, millers continue to get more flour out of each bushel of wheat.”

The U.S.D.A. projected 2010-11 seed use at 76 million bus, unchanged from November but up 7 million bus from 69 million bus last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bus, unchanged from November and up 30 million bus, or 20%, from 150 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,436 million bus, down 10 million bus from November but up 418 million bus, or 21%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.30@5.70 a bu, compared with $5.25@5.75 projected in November and with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bus, up 15 million bus from November, based on a 5-million-bu decrease in domestic use and a 10-million-bu reduction in exports, but down 47 million bus from 385 million bus in 2010.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 188 million bus, up 5 million bus from November, based on a 5-million-bu decrease in domestic use, but down 54 million bus from 242 million bus in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 201 million bus, down 10 million bus from November, based on a 10-million-bu increase in projected exports, and down 33 million bus from 234 million bus in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bus in 2011, down 5 million bus from November, based on a 5-million-bu increase in exports, but up 3 million bus from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 48 million bus, up 5 million bus from November, based on a 5-million-bu reduction in exports, but up 13 million bus from 35 million bus in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 176.72 million tonnes, up 4.21 million tonnes, or 2%, from November but down 24.17 million tonnes, or 12%, from 196.68 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 646.51 million tonnes, up 3.62 million tonnes from November but down 35.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.11 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 666.47 million tonnes, up 680,000 tonnes from November and up 14.85 million tonnes from 651.62 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.58 million tonnes, down 1.65 million tonnes from November and down 10.02 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.6 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Production for Australia is raised 1.5 million tonnes as higher reported yields in eastern Australia continue to boost production prospects,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Recent heavy rains in many of these same areas, however, have dampened production prospects and reduced wheat quality.”

The U.S.D.A. projected Australian 2010-11 wheat production at 25.5 million tonnes, up 1.5 million from November, and exports at 15 million tonnes, down 1 million from last month. Increases in production also were forecast for Canada, Ukraine, Brazil and Pakistan.

U.S. corn production in 2010 was forecast at 12,540 million bus, unchanged from November and down 570 million bus, or 4%, from a record 13,110 million bus in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14,262 million bus, up 5 million bus from November based on a 5-million-bu increase in imports at 15 million bus, but down 530 million bus, or 4%, from 14,792 million bus in 2009-10.

All other 2010-11 and 2009-10 projections were unchanged from November with feed and residual use 5,300 million bus, up 141 million bus, or 3%, from 5,159 million bus in 2009-10. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,180 million bus (food and seed use at 1,380 million bus and use for ethanol at 4,800 million bus), up 242 million bus, or 4%, from 5,938 million bus in 2009-10. Total domestic use was projected at 11,480 million bus, up 382 million bus, or 3%, from 11,098 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, unchanged from November but down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.80@5.60 a bu in 2010-11, unchanged from November and compared with $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production was forecast at a record 3,375 million bus in 2010, unchanged from November but up 16 million bus from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,536 million bus, unchanged from November but up 24 million bus from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,371 million bus, up 20 million bus from November and up 10 million bus from 3,361 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,665 million bus, unchanged from November but down 87 million bus, or 5%, from 1,752 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1,590 million bus, up 20 million bus from November and up 89 million bus, or 6%, from the previous record of 1,501 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was projected at 29 million bus, unchanged from November but up 11 million bus from 2009-10. Seed use was unchanged from November at 88 million bus, down 2 million bus from 2009-10.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.70@12.20 a bu, unchanged from November and compared with $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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