U.S.D.A. projects 2011 U.S. wheat carryover up 5%
BakingBusiness.com, May 11, 2010
by Ron Sterk
WASHINGTON — The carryover of wheat in all positions in the United States on June 1, 2011, was projected at 997 million bus, up 47 million bus, or 5%, from 950 million bus forecast for 2010 and up 52% from 657 million bus in 2009, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its May 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which included the department’s first projections for the 2010-11 marketing year.

U.S. all-wheat production in 2010 was projected at 2,043 million bus, down 8% from 2,216 million bus in 2009. The projection was based on a forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,458 million bus and projected spring wheat (including durum) production of about 585 million bus, the latter based on planting intentions and trendline data for yield and abandonment.

Total wheat supply was projected at 3,103 million bus for 2010-11, up 4% from 2,988 million bus in the current year, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 900 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 4%, from 865 million bus in the current year and 11% below 2008-09 exports of 1,015 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, up 20 million bus from a forecast 920 million bus in 2009-10. Feed and residual use was projected at 190 million bus, up 10 million bus from a forecast 180 million bus in 2009-10. Seed use of wheat was projected at 76 million bus, up 3 million bus from 73 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.10@5.10 a bus, compared with $4.90 estimated in 2009-10 and $6.78 in 2008-09.

While the U.S.D.A. did not yet make 2010-11 wheat by class projections, data for 2009-10 were revised from April. Ending stocks for hard winter wheat were forecast at 380 million bus, down 20 million bus from April. White wheat ending stocks were forecast at 62 million bus, up 10 million from a month earlier. Durum ending stocks were forecast at 47 million bus, up 10 million from the April projection. Ending stocks forecasts for hard spring wheat and soft red winter wheat were unchanged from April at 250 million bus and 211 million bus, respectively.

World wheat endings stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 198.09 million tonnes, up 4.72 million tonnes, or 2%, from the projection for the current year at 193.37 million tonnes. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 672.18 million tonnes, down 1% from 679.98 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global wheat use was projected at a record 667.46 million tonnes, up 2% from 651.67 million tonnes in 2009-10. World wheat exports were projected at 129.18 million tonnes, up 2% from 126.99 million tonnes forecast for the current year.

The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1,818 million bus, up 5% from 1,738 million bus in 2010. The U.S.D.A. number was below average trade expectations of 1,884 million bus.

Corn production was forecast at 13,370 million bus, up 260 million bus from 2009, based on a forecast 81.8 million harvested acres and a trendline yield of 163.5 bus per acre. Total corn supply for 2010-11 was projected at 15,118 million bus, up 325 million bus from 14,793 million bus in the current year.

Feed and residual use was projected at 5,350 million bus, down 25 million bus from 5,375 million bus in 2009-10. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,950 million bus, up 220 million bus from 5,730 million bus this year. Use of corn for the production of ethanol in 2010-11 was projected at 4,600 million bus, up 200 million bus, or 5%, from 4,400 million bus in 2009-10. U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2,000 million bus, up 3% from 1,950 million bus in the current year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.20@3.80 a bu, compared with $3.50@3.70 this year and $4.06 in 2008-09.

World corn ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 154.21 million tonnes, up 7.17 million tonnes from 2009-10. World corn production was projected at 835.03 million tonnes, up 26.46 million tonnes from 2009-10. Total use was projected at 827.87 million tonnes, up 18.99 million tonnes from the forecast for the current year. World corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 88.53 million tonnes, up 2.52 million tonnes from a forecast 86.01 million tonnes in 2009-10.

The carryover of soybeans in the United States on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 365 million bus, up 175 million bus, or 92%, from 190 million bus in 2010 and above trade expectations that averaged 338 million bus.

Production was projected at 3,310 million bus, down 1% from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Crushings for 2010-11 were projected at 1,640 million bus, down 5% from 1,735 million bus this year. Exports were projected at 1,350 million bus, down 7% from a record 1,455 million bus forecast for the current year.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8@9.50 a bus, compared with $9.50 this year and $9.97 in 2009-10.

Global soybean production was projected at 250.13 million tonnes in 2010-11, down 3% from 258 million tonnes this year. Total use was projected at 246.35 million tonnes, up 5% from 235.11 million tonnes in 2009-10. Exports were projected at 87.92 million tonnes, up 3% from 85.39 million tonnes forecast for the current year. World soybean ending stocks in 2010-11 were projected at 66.09 million tonnes, up 4% from 63.76 million tonnes in the current year.

The carryover of U.S. rice on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 51.4 million cwts, up 69% from 30.4 million cwts this year. U.S. rice production was projected at 244 million cwts, up 11% from 219.9 million cwt in 2009. The average price of U.S. rice was projected to range from $11.15@12.15 a cwt, compared with $14.05@14.25 in the current year and with $16.80 in 2008-09.

Global rice production in 2010-11 was projected at 459.74 million tonnes, up 4% from 442.17 million tonnes in 2009-10. World use was projected at 453.44 million tonnes, up 2% from 442.56 million tonnes in the current year. Exports were projected at 31.42 million tonnes for 2010-11, up 6% from 29.67 million tonnes this year. Ending stocks were projected at 96.62 million tonnes, up 7% from 90.32 million tonnes in the current year.