U.S. 2012 wheat carryover up 6% from November

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 878 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 6%, from 828 million bus forecast in November and up 16 million bus, or 2%, from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Dec. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The increase was the result of a 50-million-bu reduction in projected 2011-12 U.S. wheat exports.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 830 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 848 million bus, up 5 million bus from 843 million bus in November but down 280 million bus, or 25%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate near 838 million bus.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 230 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 18%, from 195 million bus in November and up 15 million bus, or 7%, from 215 million bus in 2011.
The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 213 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1,999 million bus for 2011, unchanged from the November projection and down 208 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from November but up 23 million bus, or 24%, from 97 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,982 million bus for 2011-12, also unchanged from November but down 297 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 925 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 5%, from 975 million bus in November and down 364 million bus, or 28%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

“Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply and use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bus, unchanged from November but up 14 million bus, or 2%, from 926 million bus in 2010-11, and seed use at 78 million bus, unchanged from November but up 7 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bus, unchanged from November but up 28 million bus, or 21%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,103 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 2%, from November but down 314 million bus, or 13%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.05@7.55 a bus, compared with $7.05@7.75 projected in November, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, reductions were made in projected exports of hard winter, soft red and white wheat.
The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 343 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 8%, from 318 million bus in November but down 43 million bus, or 11%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 375 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 6%, from 400 million bus the prior month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 259 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 6%, from 244 million bus in November and up 88 million bus, or 51%, from 171 million bus in 2011. Soft red exports in 2011-12 were projected at 110 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 12%, from 125 million bus in November.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 129 million bus, unchanged from November but down 56 million bus, or 30%, from 185 million bus in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 122 million bus in 2012, up 10 million bus, or 9%, from 112 million bus in November and up 37 million bus, or 44%, from 85 million bus in 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 170 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 6%, from 180 million bus in November.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 26 million bus, unchanged from November but down 9 million bus, or 26%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 688.97 million tonnes, up 5.67 million tonnes from November, up 37.39 million tonnes, or 6%, from 651.58 million tonnes the prior year and 3.53 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.44 million tonnes in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said. Global wheat use was projected at 680.2 million tonnes, up 3.37 million tonnes from November and up 26.23 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.97 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 138.69 million tonnes, up 1.39 million tonnes from November and up 6.79 million tonnes from 131.9 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 208.52 million tonnes, up 5.92 million tonnes from November, up 8.77 million tonnes, or 4%, from 199.75 million tonnes in 2010-11 and a 12-year high, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,310 million bus, unchanged from November but down 137 million bus, or 1%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from November but down 13 million bus, or 46%, from 28 million bus in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,453 million bus, unchanged from November and down 729 million bus, or 5%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,405 million bus in 2011-12, down 5 million bus from November (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,405 million bus, down 5 million bus), and down 23 million bus from 6,428 million bus in 2010-11.
Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bus, unchanged from November but down 192 million bus, or 4%, from 4,792 million bus 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,600 million bus, unchanged from November but down 235 million bus, or 13%, from 1,835 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.90@6.90 a bu, down 30c from $6.20@7.20 a bu in November and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3,046 million bus, unchanged from November and down 283 million bus, or 9%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from November but up 1 million bus from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,275 million bus, unchanged from November and down 220 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,045 million bus, down 35 million bus, or 1%, from 3,080 million bus in November and down 235 million bus, or 7%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,625 million bus, down 10 million bus from November and down 23 million bus from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,300 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 2%, from 1,325 million bus in November and down 201 million bus, or 13%, from 1,501 million bus in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from November at 32 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.70@12.70 a bu in 2011-12, down 90c from $11.60@13.60 a bus in November and compared with $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

U.S. rice projections for 2011-12 all were unchanged from November with carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, projected at 37.5 million cwts, down from 48.5 million cwts in 2011.

World rice ending stocks were forecast at 99.5 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from November but up 2.8 million tonnes from 2010-11. World production in 2011-12 was projected at 460.8 million tonnes, down slightly from November but still record large, the U.S.D.A. said.

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