U.S. 2012 wheat carryover 16% below 2011
BakingBusiness.com, May 11, 2011
by Ron Sterk

WASHINGTON — In its first forecast for the 2011-12 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2012, was projected at 702 million bus, down 16% from the current year estimate of 839 million bus, which was unchanged from April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

All 2010-11 all wheat numbers were unchanged from April except for the average price, which was estimated at $5.65 a bu, compared with a range of $5.50@5.70 in April and $4.87 in 2009-10. The initial price projection for 2011-12 was a wide range of $6.80@8.20 a bu.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 900 million bus, up 23% from an upwardly revised 730 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. projected 2011 U.S. corn production at a record high 13,505 million bus, up 8.5% from 2010 based on planted area of 92.2 million acres and harvested area of 85.1 million acres, both up 4.5%, and yield of 158.7 bus an acre, up 4% from 152.8 bus and the third highest ever if realized. The average price of corn was projected at a record $5.50@6.50 a bu, up from $5.10@5.40 a bu forecast for the current year and $3.55 a bu in 2009-10.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 160 million bus, down 6% from an upwardly revised 170 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. projected 2011 U.S. soybean production at 3,285 million bus, down 1% from 3,329 million bus in 2010, planted area at 76.6 million acres and harvested area at 75.7 million acres, both down 1%, and yield at 43.4 bus an acre, down slightly from 43.5 bus an acre in 2010. The average price of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected to range from $12@14 a bu, compared with $11.40 this year and $9.59 in 2009-10.

For 2011-12, the U.S.D.A. carryover numbers for wheat and corn were above the average of trade expectations while the soybean number was below. For 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. wheat carryover number was slightly below the trade average while the corn and soybean numbers were above average expectations. Wheat, corn and soybean futures prices traded sharply lower following the report.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2011 U.S. all wheat production at 2,043 million bus, down 7% from 2,208 million bus in 2010, based on harvested area projected at 48 million acres, up about 1% from 47.6 million acres, and yield at 42.5 bus an acre, down 8% from 46.4 bus an acre last year. Wheat imports for 2011-12 were projected at 110 million bus, unchanged from the current year, with total supply at 2,992 million bus, down 9% from 3,294 million bus in 2010-11.

Wheat used for food in 2011-12 was projected at 945 million bus, up 2% from 930 million bus in 2010-11, seed use at 75 million bus, down 6% from 80 million bus, feed and residual at 220 million bus, up 29% from 170 million bus, and total domestic use at 1,240 million bus, up 5% from 1,180 million bus in 2010-11.

Exports were projected at 1,050 million bus in 2011-12, down 225 million bus, or 18%, from 1,275 million bus this year. Total use was projected at 2,290 million bus, down 7% from 2,455 million bus.

“Beginning stocks for 2011-12 are down 14% from 2010-11, but remain the second highest in a decade,” the U.S.D.A. said.

“The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 4%, as lower expected harvested area and yields in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas sharply reduce hard red winter wheat production,” the U.S.D.A. continued. “Partly offsetting is higher production of soft red winter wheat with a rebound in area and higher forecast yields. Spring wheat production is expected lower despite higher expected planted area for other spring wheat. A return to trend yields from record levels of the previous two years is expected to reduce durum and other spring wheat production.”

Only minor changes were made in 2010-11 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial 2011-12 by-class projections will be released in the July 12 WASDE. Hard red spring wheat exports for 2010-11 were projected at 330 million bus, down 5 million bus from the April forecast, resulting in a like increase in carryover to 220 million bus. Soft red winter exports were projected at 105 million bus, up 5 million bus from April, resulting in a like reduction in carryover to 164 million bus in 2010-11. Carryover for 2010-11 was unchanged for hard red winter wheat at 325 million bus, white wheat at 83 million bus, durum at 47 million bus and total at 839 million bus.

World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 initially were projected at 181.26 million tonnes, down 940,000 tonnes from 182.2 million tonnes estimated for the current year. World wheat production for the next marketing year was projected at 669.55 million tonnes, up 21.41 million tonnes, or 3%, from 648.14 million tonnes in 2010-11. Global wheat consumption was projected at 670.49 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 8.38 million tonnes, or 1%, from 662.11 million tonnes this year. World wheat exports were projected at 127.34 million tonnes, up 2.61 million tonnes, or 2%, from 124.73 million tonnes in 2010-11.

“A sharp rebound in FSU-12 production, combined with larger expected crops in India, North Africa, Canada and EU-27 account for most of the increase in world wheat output for 2011-12,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Increased supplies in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and a return to exporting are expected to increase competition for EU-27 and U.S. wheat. A recovery in production and improved wheat quality in Canada is also expected to increase export competition.”

U.S. total corn supply in 2011-12 was projected at 14,255 million bus, up 75 million bus from 14,180 million bus in 2010-11, based on beginning stocks of 730 million bus, imports of 20 million bus and record 2011 production of 13,505 million bus. Imports for 2010-11 were raised 5 million bus, to 25 million bus, which also boosted total supply by 5 million bus for the current year.

Feed and residual use for 2011-12 was projected at 5,100 million bus, down 50 million bus from 5,150 million bus in 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6,455 million bus, up 55 million bus from 2010-11, based on use for ethanol projected at 5,050 million bus, up 50 million bus, and food, seed and industrial at 1,405 million bus, up 5 million bus from the current year. Total domestic use was projected at 11,555 million bus in 2011-12, up 5 million bus from 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,800 million bus in 2011-12, down 100 million bus, or 5%, from 1,900 million bus in 2010-11, with the latter reduced 50 million bus from the April estimate. Total use in 2011-12 was projected at 13,355 million bus, down 95 million bus, or about 1%, from 13,450 million bus in the current year.

The 2011-12 ending stocks-to-use ratio remains “historically tight” at 6.7%, up from only 5.4% this year but well below 13% in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 129.14 million tonnes for 2011-12, up 6.95 million tonnes, or 6%, from 122.19 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. total soybean supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,470 million bus, down 25 million bus from an unchanged 3,495 million bus in 2010-11, and based on beginning stocks of 170 million bus, production of 3,285 million bus and imports of 15 million bus.

Domestic soybean crush in 2011-12 was projected at 1,655 million bus, up 5 million bus from 2010-11 which was unchanged from April at 1,650 million bus. Exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,540 million bus, down 10 million bus from 1,550 million bus in 2010-11, with the latter revised down 30 million bus from April. Seed use in 2011-12 was projected at 90 million bus, up 1 million bus from the current year, residual at 25 million bus, down 11 million bus, and total use at 3,310 million bus, down 15 million bus from 3,325 million bus this year.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 61.85 million tonnes for 2011-12, down 1.96 million tonnes, or 3%, from 63.81 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, was projected at 48.6 million cwts, down 7 million cwts from 55.6 million cwts in 2010-11, which was revised upward by 800,000 cwts from April. U.S. rice production in 2011 was projected at 211 million cwts, down 32.1 million cwts, or 13%, from 243.1 million cwts in 2010. The average farm price was projected to range from $12@13 a cwt in 2011-12 compared with $12.35@12.65 a cwt in 2010-11 and $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 96.17 million tonnes in 2011-12, down 870,000 tonnes from 97.04 million tonnes in 2010-11. Global rice production in 2011-12 was projected at a record high 457.86 million tonnes, up 6.28 million tonnes from 2010-11, and total consumption at a record 458.73 million tonnes, up 10.33 million tonnes from the current year.