U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 6% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was projected at 694 million bus, down 41 million bus from 735 million bus in May and down 34 million bus, or 5%, from 728 million bus in 2012, which was reduced 40 million bus, or 5%, from 768 million bus forecast in May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

All 2011-12 all wheat supply numbers were unchanged from May, but use numbers were raised by 40 million bus, resulting in a like reduction in carryover. Use of wheat for food was estimated at 940 million bus, up 10 million bus from the May estimate, and 2011-12 exports were estimated at 1,055 million bus, up 30 million bus from May. The 2011-12 all wheat average price was unchanged from May at a record high $7.25 a bu. The average price for 2012-13 was projected at $5.60@6.80 a bu, up 10c from May on both sides of the range.

“The increase in 2011-12 food use reflects higher-than-expected flour milling during the January-March quarter as reported by the North American Millers’ Association,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old crop marketing year.”

The U.S.D.A. 2012 and 2013 carryover numbers both were below the average of pre-report trade expectations.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 U.S. all wheat production at 2,234 million bus, down 11 million bus from the May projection but up 12% from 1,999 million bus in 2011, based on harvested area projected at 49.2 million acres, unchanged from May but up about 8% from 45.7 million acres, and yield at 45.4 bus an acre, down 0.3 bus from May but up 1.7 bus from 43.7 bus an acre last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2012-13 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from May and from 2011-12. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,082 million bus, down 51 million bus, or 2%, from 3,133 million bus in May but up 100 million bus, or 3%, from 2,982 million bus in 2011-12.

Wheat used for food in 2012-13 was projected at 945 million bus, unchanged from May but up 5 million bus from 2011-12. Seed use was unchanged from May at 73 million bus, down 8% from 79 million bus last year. Feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 220 million bus, down 10 million bus from May but up 40 million bus, or 22%, from 180 million bus in 2011-12. Total 2012-13 domestic use was projected at 1,238 million bus, down 10 million bus from May but up 39 million bus, or 3%, from 1,199 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,150 million bus in 2012-13, unchanged from May but up 95 million bus, or 9%, from 1,055 million bus last year. Total use was projected at 2,388 million bus, down 10 million bus from May but up 134 million bus, or 6%, from 2,254 million bus in 2011-12.

Changes were made to domestic use and export for 2011-12 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial 2012-13 wheat by-class projections will be released in July.

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2012, was estimated at 324 million bus, down 12 million bus from the May forecast based on a 7-million-bu increase in domestic food use, at 443 million bus, and a 6-million-bu increase in exports, at 401 million bus. Total use was increased 12 million bus from May to 843 million bus.

Soft red winter wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 165 million bus, up 10 million bus from May, while supply was increased by 4 million bus, to 666 million bus, resulting in a rounded decrease in carryover at 194 million bus, down 7 million bus from May.

Hard spring wheat supply was lowered 2 million bus from May, at 618 million bus, domestic use was raised 3 million bus, to 240 million bus, exports were raised 6 million bus, to 246 million bus, resulting in carryover of 131 million bus, down 12 million bus from May.

White wheat exports were raised 7 million bus, to 217 million bus in 2011-12, resulting in a like decrease in carryover, estimated at 65 million bus.

Durum supply was lowered 2 million bus, exports were raised 1 million bus, at 26 million bus, and carryover was reduced 3 million bus, to 14 million bus.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 185.76 million tonnes, down 2.37 million from 188.13 million tonnes in May and down 9.8 million tonnes, or 5%, from 195.56 million tonnes estimated for 2011-12. World wheat production for 2012-13 was projected at 672.06 million tonnes, down 5.5 million tonnes from May and down 22.11 million tonnes, or 3%, from 694.17 million tonnes in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption was projected at 681.87 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 4.6 million tonnes from May and down 13.97 million tonnes, or 2%, from 695.84 million tonnes in 2011-12. World wheat exports were projected at 135.42 million tonnes, down 1.6 million tonnes from May and down 13.34 million tonnes, or 9%, from 148.76 million tonnes in 2011-12.

“World production for 2012-13 is lowered reflecting reduced crop prospects in several exporting countries, including Russia, EU-27, Turkey and the United States,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Russia production is reduced 3 million tonnes due to a continuation of spring dryness in key winter wheat producing areas and indication of crop development problems resulting from winter freeze damage.”

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 1,881 million bus, unchanged from the initial May projection but up 1,030 million bus, or 121%, from an unchanged 851 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2011-12 and 2012-13 U.S. corn carryover projections both were above average trade expectations.

All 2012-13 projections were unchanged from May. The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 U.S. corn production at a record high 14,790 million bus, up 20% from 2011 based on planted area of 95.9 million acres and harvested area of 89.1 million acres, up 4% and 6%, respectively, and yield of 166 bus an acre, up 13% from 147.2 bus in 2011. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.20@5 a bu in 2012-13, down from $5.95@6.25 a bu forecast for 2011-12 and $5.18 a bu in 2010-11.

U.S. total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 15,656 million bus, up 16% from 13,506 million bus in 2011-12, based on beginning stocks of 851 million bus, imports of 15 million bus (down 5 million bus from 2011-12) and record 2012 production of 14,790 million bus.

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 5,450 million bus, up 900 million bus, or 20%, from 4,550 million bus in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,425 million bus, down 30 million bus from 6,455 million bus 2011-12, based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5,000 million bus, down 50 million bus from an upwardly revised 5,050 million bus for 2011-12, and food, seed and industrial at 1,425 million bus, up 20 million bus from the current year. Total domestic use was projected at 11,875 million bus in 2012-13, up 870 million bus from a upwardly revised 11,005 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,900 million bus in 2012-13, up 250 million bus, or 15%, from a downwardly revised 1,650 million bus in 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 13,775 million bus, up 1,120 million bus, or 9%, from 12,655 million bus in 2011-12.

World corn ending stocks in 2012-13 were projected at 155.74 million tonnes, up from 152.34 million tonnes projected in May and up 26.55 million tonnes, or 21%, from 129.19 million tonnes in 2011-12.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 140 million bus, down 5 million bus from the May projection and down 35 million bus, or 20%, from a downwardly revised 175 million bus in 2012.
The 2012 and 2013 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover numbers were below the average trade of expectations for both years.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 58.54 million tonnes in 2012-13, up from 58.07 million tonnes for 2012-13, and up 5.18 million tonnes, or 10%, from 53.36 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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