Winter wheat crop down 1% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2012 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,683,667,000 bus, down 10,043,000 bus, or 1%, from 1,693,710,000 bus forecast in May but up 189,990,000 bus, or 13%, from 1,493,677,000 bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June Crop Production report this morning. In its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the U.S.D.A. projected the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, at 694 million bus, down 41 bus, or 6%, from its initial forecast of 735 million bus in May and down 34 million bus, or 5%, from a revised 728 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. wheat production number was above analysts’ pre-report trade expectations, which averaged near 1,650 million bus.

The 2013 wheat carryover projection was below the average trade estimate of 728 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast winter wheat yield at 47.3 bus per acre based on conditions as of June 1, down 0.3 bus from 47.6 bus in May but up 1.1 bus from 46.2 bus in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 35,580,000 acres, unchanged from May but up 10% from 32,314,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 1,023,894,000 bus, down 1% from 1,032,252,000 bus forecast in May but up 31% from 780,089 bus in 2011. Soft red winter outturn was forecast at 428,466,000 bus, up slightly from 428,263,000 bus in May, but down 6% from 457,535,000 bus in 2011.

White winter wheat production was forecast at 231,307,000 bus, down 1% from 233,195,000 bus in May and down 10% from 256,053,000 bus in 2011, including soft white winter at 217,183,000 bus, down from 219,135,000 bus in May and from 243,685,000 bus in 2011, and hard white winter at 14,124,000 bus, up from 14,060,000 bus in May and from 12,368,000 bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. numbers compared with pre-report trade expectations averaging near 996 million bus for hard red winter wheat, 422 million bus for soft red winter and 231 million bus for white winter.

Total winter durum production in Arizona and California was estimated at 25,190,000 bus, up 23% from 20,514,000 bus in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said.

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