U.S. 2014 sugar carryover seen up 4%

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2014, at 2,245,000 short tons, raw value, up 77,000 tons, or 4%, from 2,168,000 tons forecast as the carryover on Oct. 1, 2013.

The 2013-14 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 18.8%, up from 18.5% as the forecast 2012-13 ratio, which was up from 18% forecast in April.

In its first report for the new marketing year that begins Oct. 1, 2013, the U.S.D.A. projected 2013-14 U.S. beet sugar production at 4,840,000 tons, down 260,000 tons, or 5%, from 5,100,000 tons forecast for 2012-13. U.S. cane sugar production was projected at 3,744,000 tons, down 171,000 tons, or 4%, from 3,915,000 tons in the current year. Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,584,000 tons, down 431,000 tons, or 5%, from 9,015,000 tons in 2012-13.

U.S. imports in 2013-14 were projected at 3,438,000 tons, up 535,000 tons, or 18%, from 2,903,000 tons in 2012-13.  Tariff rate quota imports were projected at 1,265,000 tons, up 171,000 tons, or 16% from 1,094,000 tons forecast for 2012-13 and the minimum required under World Trade Organization agreements. Imports of sugar from Mexico in 2013-14 were projected at 1,763,000 tons, up 89,000 tons, or 5%, from 1,674,000 tons in 2012-13, the latter of which was raised 27,000 tons from the April forecast.

Total U.S. sugar supply was projected at 14,190,000 tons, up 287,000 tons, or 2%, from 13,903,000 tons in 2012-13.

Total domestic sugar deliveries were projected at 11,745,000 tons in 2013-14, up 210,000 tons, or 2%, from 11,535,000 tons in 2012-13. Sugar deliveries for food were projected at 11,560,000 tons, up 160,000 tons, or 1%, from 11,400,000 tons in the current year. U.S. sugar exports in 2013-14 were projected at 200,000 tons, unchanged from the current year forecast. Total sugar use was projected at 11,945,000 tons, up 210,000 tons from 11,735,000 tons in 2012-13.

Sugar production in Mexico in 2013-14 was projected at 5.887 million tonnes, actual weight, down 378,000 tonnes from 6.215 million tonnes in 2012-13, which was raised 98,000 tonnes, or 2%, from April. Imports were projected at 137,000 tonnes, unchanged from 2012-13.

Domestic sugar use in Mexico was projected at 4.6 million tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes, or 1%, from 4.54 million tonnes in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1.519 million tonnes, down 99,000 tonnes, or 6%, from 1.618 million tonnes in 2012-13. Ending stocks in Mexico were projected at 1.065 million tonnes, down 95,000 tonnes from 1.160 million tonnes forecast for the current year.
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