U.S. 2014 wheat carryover 8% below 2013

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – In the first forecast for the 2013-14 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2014, was projected at 670 million bus, down 61 million bus, or 8%, from the current year estimate of 731 million bus, which was unchanged from the April forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The U.S.D.A. 2013-14 all wheat carryover number of 670 million bus was above the average trade expectation of 627 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. all wheat production at 2,057 million bus, down 9% from 2,269 million bus in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 46.7 million acres, down about 5%, and yield at 44.1 bus an acre, down 5% from last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bus, up 5 million bus from 125 million bus in the current year. Total supply was projected at 2,917 million bus, down 220 million bus, or 7%, from 3,137 million bus in 2012-13.

Wheat used for food in 2013-14 was projected at 958 million bus, up 1% from 945 million bus in 2012-13, and seed use was projected at 74 million bus, down 3% from 76 million bus. Feed and residual use in 2013-14 was projected at 290 million bus, down 70 million bus, or 19%, from 360 million bus in 2012-13. Total 2013-14 domestic use was projected at 1,322 million bus, down 59 million bus, or 4% from 1,381 million bus in 2012-13.

Exports were projected at 925 million bus in 2013-14, down 100 million bus, or 10%, from 1,025 million bus this year. Total use was projected at 2,247 million bus, down 159 million bus, or 7%, from 2,406 million bus this year.

The initial all wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.15@7.45 a bu, compared with $7.80 a bu estimated for the current year.

For 2012-13 wheat imports were revised down 5 million bus from April, to 125 million bus, and food use also was revised down 5 million bus, to 945 million bus, resulting in unchanged carryover from April at 731 million bus.

Only minor changes were made in 2012-13 wheat-by-class numbers. The U.S.D.A. in July will issue wheat-by-class estimates for 2013-14.

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2013, was estimated at 340 million bus, down 17 million bus from the April forecast based on a 7 million bus reduction in 2012-13 imports and a 10 million bus increase in exports, now estimated at 410 million bus.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was estimated at 115 million bus, up 8 million bus from April, based on a 3 million bu decrease in domestic use, estimated at 315 million bus, and a 5 million bus reduction in exports, estimated at 195 million bus.

Hard spring wheat carryover in 2013 was projected at 199 million bus, up 9 million bus from April, based on a 2 million bu increase in imports, a 2 million bu reduction in domestic use, estimated at 280 million bus, and a 5 million bus reduction in exports, estimated at 220 million bus.

Numbers for white wheat and durum were unchanged from April.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 2,004 million bus, up 1,245 million bus, or 164%, from an upwardly revised 759 million bus in 2013. The U.S.D.A. 2013-14 U.S. corn carryover was above the trade average that was near 1,973 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 14,140 million bus, up 31% from 10,780 million bus in 2012 based on planted area of 97.3 million acres, up slightly from 2012, and harvested area of 89.5 million acres, up 2%, and yield of 158 bus an acre, up 28% from 123.4 bus. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.30@5.10 a bu in 2013-14, down from $6.70@7.10 a bu estimated for the current year and $6.22 a bu in 2011-12.

U.S. total corn supply in 2013-14 was projected at 14,924 million bus, up 25% from 11,894 million bus in 2012-13, based on beginning stocks of 759 million bus, imports of 25 million bus (down 100 million bus from 2012-13) and record 2013 production of 14,140 million bus.

Feed and residual use for 2013-14 was projected at 5,325 million bus, up 925 million bus, or 21%, from 4,400 million bus in 2012-13. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6,295 million bus, up 310 million bus, or 5%, from 5,985 million bus 2012-13 (based on corn use for ethanol projected at 4,850 million bus, up 250 million bus, and for food, seed and industrial at 1,445 million bus, up 60 million bus). Total domestic use was projected at 11,620 million bus, up 1,235 million bus, or 12%, from 10,385 million bus 2012-13.

Corn exports were projected at 1,300 million bus in 2013-14, up 550 million bus, or 73% from 750 million bus in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 12,920 million bus, up 1,785 million bus, or 16%, from 11,135 million bus in the current year.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 265 million bus, up 140 million bus, or 112%, from 125 million bus in 2013. The 2013-14 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was above the average trade of expectation near 239 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at a record 3,390 million bus, up 12% from 3,015 million bus in 2012, planted area at 77.1 million acres, down slightly, and harvested area at 76.2 million acres, up slightly, and yield at 44.5 bus an acre, up 12% from 39.6 bus an acre. The average price of soybeans in 2013-14 was projected to range from $9.50@11.50 a bu, compared with $14.30 this year and $12.50 in 2011-12.

U.S. total soybean supply in 2013-14 was projected at 3,530 million bus, up 326 million bus, or 10%, from 3,204 million bus in 2012-13, and based on beginning stocks of 125 million bus, production of 3,390 million bus and imports of 15 million bus.

Domestic soybean crush in 2013-14 was projected at 1,695 million bus, up 60 million bus, or 4%, from 1,635 million bus in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,450 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 7% from 1,350 million bus in 2012-13. Seed use was projected at 87 million bus, down 3 million bus from the current year, residual at 33 million bus, up 28 million bus, and total use at 3,264 million bus, up 184 million bus, or 6%, from 3,080 million bus in 2012-13.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 33.1 million cwts, down 1 million cwts, or 3%, from 34.1 million cwts this year. U.S. rice production in 2013 was projected at 189.5 million cwts, down 10 million cwts from 2012. The average farm price was projected to range from $14.30@15.30 a cwt in 2013-14 compared with $14.70@15.10 a cwt in 2012-13 and $14.50 a cwt in 2011-12.

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