Winter wheat crop down 10%; 2014 wheat carryover down 8%

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2013 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,486 million bus, down 159 million bus, or 10%, from 1,645 million bus in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its May 10 Crop Production report. U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2014, was initially projected at 670 million bus, down 8% from 731 million bus as the estimate for June 1, 2013, the U.S.D.A. said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, also released May 10.

The U.S.D.A. winter wheat production number was above analysts’ pre-report trade expectations that averaged near 1,477 million bus. The 2013-14 carryover projected compared with the average trade estimate of 627 million bus.

Wheat futures traded lower after the reports were released.

It was the first U.S.D.A. survey-based crop production forecast of winter wheat for the 2013 season.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 768 million bus, down 23% from 2012, soft red winter at 501 million bus, up 19%, and white winter at 217 million bus, down 2%.

The U.S.D.A. numbers compared with pre-report trade expectations averaging near 765 million bus for hard red winter wheat, 496 million bus for soft red winter and 217 million bus for white winter.

In its initial 2013-14 WASDE projections, the U.S.D.A. forecast total U.S. wheat production in 2013 at 2,057 million bus, down 212 million bus, or 9%, from 2012, based on a combination of survey-based winter wheat data and trend data for spring wheat. Food use of wheat was projected at 958 million bus, up 1% from 945 million bus estimated in 2012-13. U.S. wheat exports were projected at 925 million bus, down 100 million bus from 1,025 million bus in the current year, which ends May 31.

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