U.S.D.A. raises winter wheat forecast to 1,509 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S Department of Agriculture on June 12 forecast winter wheat production in 2013 at 1,509,142,000 bus, up 2% from the May projection but down 136,060,000 bus, or 8%, from 1,645,202,000 bus in 2012. The forecast was well above the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 1,457 million bus with an unexpectedly large forecast for hard red winter wheat production standing out.

The U.S.D.A. forecast hard red winter wheat production in 2013 at 781 million bus, up 2% from the May outlook and compared with 1,004 million bus in 2012 and 780 million bus in 2011. The forecast was well above trade expectations that averaged around 743 million bus.

Production in the key hard red winter wheat state of Kansas was forecast at 307,800,000 bus, up 3% from the May projection but down 19% from 382,200,000 bus in 2012. The U.S.D.A. raised its production forecast for Texas to 60,000,000 bus from 54,000,000 bus.

Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 509 million bus, up 2% from the May outlook and compared with 420 million bus in 2012. The forecast compared with the average of trade expectations at around 506 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast white winter wheat production at 219 million bus, up 1% from May and compared with 229 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. forecast all-winter wheat harvested area in 2013 at 32,709,000, unchanged from the May projection but down 6% from 34,834,000 acres in 2012. The U.S.D.A. forecast the average winter wheat yield at 46.1 bus per acre, up from 45.4 bus per acre as the May projection but down from 47.2 bus per acre in 2012.
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