U.S. 2014 wheat carryover down 2% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its June 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2014, at 659 million bus — a five-year low —down 11 million bus, or about 2%, from 670 million bus as the May projection and down 87 million bus, or 12%, from 746 million bus on June 1, 2013.

The U.S.D.A. 2013-14 wheat carryover projection was above the average trade expectation of 634 million bus. Wheat futures prices traded lower after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the report.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. all wheat production at 2,080 million bus, up 23 million bus, or 1% from 2,057 million bus as the May projection but down 189 million bus, or 8%, from 2,269 million bus in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 46.7 million acres and yield at 44.6 bus an acre.

U.S.D.A. forecasts for 2012-13 were unchanged except for exports, which were reduced 15 million bus to 1,010 million bus, resulting in a like decrease in carryover, estimated at 746 million bus.

U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bus, unchanged from May but up 5 million bus from the current year. Total supply was projected at 2,956 million bus, up 39 million bus from May but down 181 million bus, or 6%, from 3,137 million bus in 2012-13.

Total 2013-14 domestic use of wheat was projected at 1,322 million bus, unchanged from May but down 59 million bus, or 4%, from 1,381 million bus in 2012-13. Unchanged from May were projections for wheat used for food in 2013-14 at 958 million bus, up 1% from 945 million bus in 2012-13, seed use at 74 million bus, down 3% from 76 million bus from last year, and feed and residual use at 290 million bus, down 70 million bus, or 19%, from 360 million bus in 2012-13.

Exports were projected at 975 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 5%, from 925 million bus projected in May but down 35 million bus, or 3%, from 1,010 million bus in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 2,297 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 2%, from 2,247 million bus in May but down 94 million bus, or 4%, from 2,391 million bus in 2012-13.

The all wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.25@7.55 a bu, up 10c from the May projection and compared with $7.80 a bu estimated for 2012-13.

Mostly minor changes were made in 2012-13 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial wheat-by-class estimates for 2013-14 will be issued by the U.S.D.A. in July.

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2013, was estimated at 348 million bus, up 8 million bus from the May forecast based on a 7-million-bu reduction in 2012-13 exports, at 403 million bus, and a 1-million-bu increase in supply, including imports.

Soft red winter carryover was estimated at 120 million bus, up 5 million bus from May, based on a 7-million-bu decrease in exports, estimated at 188 million bus, and a 2-million-bu decrease in total supply.

Hard spring wheat carryover in 2013 was projected at 200 million bus, up 1 million bus from May, based on a 2-million-bu reduction in supply more than offset by a 3-million-bu reduction in exports, estimated at 217 million bus.

White wheat carryover was estimated at 47 million bus, up 1 million bus from May based on a like reduction in exports, estimated at 174 million bus.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was unchanged at 30 million bus as a 3-million-bu increase in supply was offset by a like increase in exports, estimated at 28 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,949 million bus, down 55 million bus, or 3%, from 2,004 million bus as the May projection, but up 1,180 million bus, or 153%, from an upwardly revised 769 million bus in 2013. The U.S.D.A. 2013-14 U.S. corn carryover was above the average trade expectation of 1,758 million bus. Corn futures prices traded lower after the report.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 14,005 million bus, down 135 million bus, or 1%, from 14,140 million bus as the May projection, but up 30% from 10,780 million bus in 2012 based on planted area of 97.3 million acres, harvested area of 89.5 million acres, both unchanged from May, and average yield of 156.5 bus per acre, down 1.5 bus from May but up 33.1 bus, or 27%, from 123.4 bus in 2012. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.40@5.20 a bu in 2013-14, up 10c from the May projection, but down from $6.75@7.15 a bu estimated for the current year, which was up 5c from May.

U.S. total corn supply was projected at 14,799 million bus, down 125 million bus, or 1%, from May but up 2,880 million bus, or 24%, from 11,919 million bus in 2012-13, based on beginning stocks of 769 million bus, imports of 25 million bus (down 125 million bus from 2012-13) and 2013 production of 14,005 million bus.

Feed and residual use for 2013-14 was projected at 5,200 million bus, down 125 million bus, or 2%, from May but up 800 million bus, or 18%, from 4,400 million bus in 2012-13. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6,350 million bus, up 55 million bus from May and up 300 million bus, or 5%, from 6,050 million bus in 2012-13. Corn used for ethanol in 2013-14 was projected at 4,900 million bus, up 50 million bus from May and up 250 million bus, or 5%, from 4,650 million bus this year, which also was raised 50 million bus from May. Food and seed use of corn was projected at 1,450 million bus, up 5 million bus from May and up 50 million bus from 2012-13. Total domestic corn use was projected at 11,550 million bus, down 70 million bus from May but up 1,100 million bus, or 11%, from 10,450 million bus in 2012-13.
Corn exports were projected at 1,300 million bus, unchanged from May but up 600 million bus, or 86%, from 700 million bus in 2012-13, which was down 50 million bus from May. Total use was projected at 12,850 million bus, down 70 million bus from May but up 1,700 million bus, or 15%, from 11,150 million bus in the current year.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 265 million bus, unchanged from the May projection, as were all 2013-14 projections for soybeans except for average price, which was raised 25c to $9.75@11.75 a bu from $9.50@11.50 a bu, down from $14.35 a bu in 2012-13, which was up 5c from May.

The 2013-14 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 273 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at a record 3,390 million bus, up 12% from 3,015 million bus in 2012, planted area at 77.1 million acres, harvested area at 76.2 million acres, and yield at 44.5 bus an acre, all unchanged from May projections.

U.S. total soybean supply in 2013-14 was projected at 3,530 million bus, up 321 million bus, or 10%, from 3,209 million bus in 2012-13, which was raised 5 million bus based on a like increase in imports, estimated at 25 million bus in the current year and compared with imports of 15 million bus projected for next year.
Domestic soybean crush was projected at 1,695 million bus, unchanged from May but up 35 million bus, or 2%, from 1,660 million bus in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,450 million bus, up 120 million bus, or 9%, from a downwardly revised 1,330 million bus in 2012-13. Seed use was projected at 87 million bus, down 3 million bus from the current year, residual at 33 million bus, up 28 million bus, and total use at 3,264 million bus, up 179 million bus, or 6%, from 3,085 million bus in 2012-13.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 33.1 million cwts, unchanged from May but down 1 million cwts, or 3%, from 34.1 million cwts this year. All 2013-14 projected rice numbers were unchanged from May except for average price, which was projected to range from $14.50@15.50 a cwt, up 20c from May and compared with $14.80@15 in 2012-13.

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