U.S. 2014 wheat carryover down 13% from June

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2014, at 576 million bus, down 83 million bus, or 13%, from 659 million bus as the June projection and down 142 million bus, or 20%, from 718 million bus on June 1, 2013.

The U.S.D.A. 2014 wheat carryover projection was below the average trade expectation of 624 million bus. Wheat futures prices traded higher after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the report.

The U.S.D.A. revised several of its 2012-13 numbers from June, including imports at 123 million bus, down 2 million, total supply at 3,134 million bus, down 3 million, seed use at 73 million bus, down 3 million, feed and residual at 388 million bus, up 28 million, total domestic use at 1,407 million bus, up 26 million, exports at 1,009 million bus, down 1 million, total use at 2,416 million bus, up 25 million, ending stocks at 718 million bus, down 28 million, and outstanding loans at 8 million bus, up 8 million. Food use of wheat in 2012-13 was unchanged at 945 million bus, and the average price of wheat paid to farmers was reduced 3c to $7.77 a bu.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2013 U.S. all wheat production at 2,114 million bus, up 34 million bus, or about 2%, from 2,080 million bus as the June projection but down 155 million bus, or 7%, from 2,269 million bus in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 45.7 million acres and yield at 46.2 bus an acre.

U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bus, unchanged from June but up 7 million from 2012-13. Total supply was projected at 2,962 million bus, up 6 million from June but down 172 million, or 5%, from 3,134 million bus in 2012-13.

Total 2013-14 domestic use of wheat was projected at 1,311 million bus, down 11 million bus from June and down 96 million bus, or 7%, from 1,407 million bus in 2012-13. Wheat used for food in 2013-14 was at 958 million bus, unchanged from June but up 1% from 945 million bus in 2012-13. Seed use was seen at 73 million bus, down 1 million bus from June. Feed and residual use at 280 million bus was down 10 million bus, or 3%, from 290 million bus in June and down 108 million bus, or 28%, from 388 million bus in 2012-13.

Exports were projected at 1,075 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 10%, from 975 million bus projected in June and up 66 million bus, or 7%, from 1,009 million bus in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 2,386 million bus, up 89 million bus, or 4%, from 2,297 million bus in June but down 30 million bus, or 1%, from 2,416 million bus in 2012-13.

The all wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.45@7.75 a bu, up 20c from the June projection and compared with $7.77 a bu estimated for 2012-13.

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2013, was estimated at 343 million bus, down 5 million from the June estimate, soft red winter at 124 million bus, up 4 million, hard spring at 165 million bus, down 35 million, white wheat at 63 million bus, up 16 million, and durum at 23 million bus, down 7 million.

In its first by-class numbers for 2013-14, the U.S.D.A. projected carryover on June 1, 2014, for hard winter wheat at 209 million bus, down 134 million, or 39%, from 2013, soft red winter at 113 million bus, down 11 million, hard spring at 181 million bus, up 16 million, white wheat at 53 million bus, down 10 million, and durum at 20 million bus, down 3 million.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,959 million bus, up 10 million from the June projection and up 1,230 million bus, or 169%, from a downwardly revised 729 million bus in 2013. The U.S.D.A. 2014 U.S. corn carryover was above the average trade expectation of 1,874 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 13,950 million bus, down 55 million from 14,005 million bus as the June projection, but up 29% from 10,780 million bus in 2012 based on harvested area of 89.1 million acres and average yield of 156.5 bus per acre.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 295 million bus, up 30 million, or 11%, from the June projection and up 170 million, or 136%, from 125 million bus in 2013. The 2014 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was above the average trade estimate of 270 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at a record 3,420 million bus, up 30 million bus from the June forecast and up 405 million bus, or 13%, from 3,015 million bus in 2012, based on harvested area at 76.9 million acres and an average yield at 44.5 bus an acre.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 28.6 million cwts, down 4.5 million, or 14%, from 33.1 million cwts in June and down 4 million, or 12%, from 32.6 million cwts in 2013.
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