U.S. 2013, 2014 sugar carryover raised from July

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2014, at 2,025,000 short tons, raw value, up 12,000 tons, or less than 1%, from its July projection but down 284,000 tons, or 12%, from 2,309,000 tons forecast for Oct. 1, 2013, which was raised 90,000 tons, or 4%, from the July forecast.

The 2013-14 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 16.9%, up slightly from 16.8% as the July projection and compared with 19.6% as the 2012-13 ratio, which was up from 18.8% in July.

“Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013-14 is increased slightly from last month, as higher beginning stocks and imports are nearly offset by lower production,” the U.S.D.A. said. “The decline in production is due to lower forecast sugar beet and sugar cane yields, compared with last month’s trend-based projections.”

For 2012-13, the U.S.D.A. left domestic production unchanged but lowered beginning stocks 6,000 tons and increased imports 96,000 tons based on a 76,000-ton reduction in tariff rate quota imports that were more than offset by a 4,000-ton increase in other program imports and a 168,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, which were up 9% from July and up 93% from 2011-12 at a record high 2,068,000 tons.

Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,453,000 tons, down 190,000 tons, or 2%, from July and down 562,000 tons, or 6%, from 9,015,000 tons in 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. projected beet sugar production at 4,800,000 tons, down 90,000 tons, or 2%, from July and down 300,000 tons, or 6%, from 2012, and cane sugar production at 3,653,000 tons, down 100,000 tons, or 3%, from July and down 262,000 tons, or 7%, from a year earlier.

In its first survey-based sugar beet and sugar cane crop forecasts of the season, the U.S.D.A. forecast 2013 U.S. sugar beet production at 30,028,000 tons, down 15% from 2012, based on a forecast average yield of 25.4 tons per acre, down 13% from 2012, and harvested area of 1,183,800 acres, up slightly from the June Acreage report but down 2% from last year. Sugar cane production was forecast at 30,371,000 tons, down 6% from 2012 based on a forecast average yield of 33.3 tons per acre, down 7%, and harvested area of 911,100 acres, up 1% from 2012.

U.S. imports in 2013-14 were projected at 3,228,000 tons, up 112,000 tons, or 4%, from 3,116,000 tons as the July projection, and up 108,000 tons, or 3%, from 3,120,000 tons in 2012-13. T.R.Q. imports were projected at 1,122,000 tons, unchanged from July but up 209,000 tons, or 23%, from 913,000 tons in 2012-13. Other program imports were projected at 110,000 tons, down 15,000 tons, or 12%, from July and down 19,000 tons, or 15%, from 129,000 tons in 2012-13. Imports from Mexico were projected at 1,986,000 tons, up 127,000 tons, or 7%, from 1,859,000 tons in July but down 82,000 tons, or 4%, from 2,068,000 tons in 2012-13.

Total sugar supply was projected at 13,990,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from 13,978,000 tons in July but down 124,000 tons, or 1%, from 14,114,000 tons in the current year.

Forecast sugar use, both domestic deliveries and exports, were unchanged from July for both 2012-13 and 2013-14. Total domestic sugar deliveries were projected at 11,765,000 tons in 2013-14, up 160,000 tons, or 1%, from 11,605,000 tons in 2012-13. Sugar deliveries for food and miscellaneous were projected at 11,580,000 tons, up 110,000 tons from 11,470,000 tons in the current year. U.S. sugar exports in 2013-14 were projected at 200,000 tons, unchanged from July and from the current year. Total sugar use was projected at 11,965,000 tons, up 160,000 tons, or 1%, from 11,805,000 tons in the current year.

Sugar production in Mexico was estimated at 6,975,000 tonnes, actual weight, in 2012-13, down 15,000 tonnes from the July estimate. Domestic use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,775,000 tonnes, unchanged from July, exports at 1,955,000 tonnes, up 144,000 tonnes, or 8%, and ending stocks at 1,348,000 tonnes, down 159,000 tonnes, or 11%, from July.

Sugar production in Mexico in 2013-14 was projected at 6,200,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 313,000 tonnes, or 5%, from the July projection but down 775,000 tonnes, or 11%, from 2012-13. Imports were unchanged from July and from 2012-13 at 137,000 tonnes. Domestic use next year was projected at 4,840,000 tonnes, unchanged from July but up 65,000 tonnes, or 1%, from 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,810,000 tonnes, up 109,000 tonnes, or 6%, from 1,701,000 tonnes in July but down 145,000 tonnes, or 7%, from the current year. Projected 2013-14 ending stocks were 1,035,000 tonnes, up 45,000 tonnes, or 5%, from 990,000 tonnes projected in July but down 313,000 tonnes, or 23%, from 1,348,000 tonnes forecast for 2012-13.

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