U.S. 2013 corn crop up 28% from 2012

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2013 corn production was forecast at 13,763,025,000 bus, up 28% from 10,780,296,000 bus in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it is Aug. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 3,255,444,000 bus, up 8% from 3,014,998,000 bus last year. All-wheat production was forecast at 2,114,085,000 bus, up slightly from 2,113,643,000 bus in July but down 7% from 2,269,117,000 bus in 2012.

If realized, corn production would be record high and soybean production would be the third largest on record, the U.S.D.A. said. It was the first U.S.D.A. survey-based forecast of the season for corn, soybeans and other row crops.

The U.S.D.A. corn number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of 14,005 million bus. The soybean number also was below the pre-report average of about 3,336 million bus. The all-wheat number was above the average analyst estimate of 2,106 million bus.

Corn and soy complex futures traded higher after the report, while wheat futures were mixed but mostly lower.

Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 154.4 bus an acre, up 31 bus from 123.4 bus an acre in 2012 and the highest average yield since 2009, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 89,135,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 2% from 87,375,000 acres in 2012.

Soybean yield was forecast at 42.6 bus an acre, up 3 bus from 39.6 bus an acre in 2012 and the fifth highest on record if realized. Harvested area was forecast at 76,378,000 acres, down slightly from June, up slightly from 76,104,000 acres in 2012 and the second highest on record if realized. Planted area was estimated at 77,178,000 acres, down slightly from June and from 77,198,000 acres in 2012.

“Survey respondents who reported acreage as not yet planted in Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wisconsin during the survey conducted in preparation for the Acreage report, released June 28, 2013, were re-contacted in July to determine how many of those acres were planted or still intended to be planted,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Acreage estimates in this report reflect this updated information.”

All-wheat average yield was forecast at 46.2 bus an acre, unchanged from July but down 0.1 bu from 46.3 bus an acre in 2012. Harvested area was forecast at 45,730,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 7% from 48,991,000 acres in 2012.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 511,280,000 bus, down slightly from 513,018,000 bus forecast in July and down 6% from 541,959,000 bus a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 42.8 bus an acre, down 0.1 bu from 42.9 bus an acre in July and down 2.2 bus from 45 bus in 2012. Harvested area was forecast at 11,958,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 1% from 12,055,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 474,823,000 bus, down slightly from 476,324,000 bus in July and down 6% from 504,520,000 bus in 2012.

Durum outturn was forecast at 60,200,000 bus, up 5% from 57,530,000 bus in July but down 27% from 81,956,000 bus in 2012. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, durum yield was forecast at 40.1 bus an acre, up 1.8 bus from 38.3 bus an acre in July and up 1.1 bus from 39 bus an acre in 2012, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 1,502,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 29% from 2,102,000 acres a year ago.

The U.S.D.A. estimated winter wheat production at 1,542,605,000 bus, down slightly from 1,543,095,000 bus in July and down 6% from 1,645,202,000 bus in 2012. Winter wheat yield was estimated at 47.8 bus an acre, unchanged from July but up 0.6 bus from 47.2 bus an acre last year and equal to the 1999 record, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was estimated at 32,270,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 7% from 34,834,000 acres a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 791,364,000 bus, down slightly from 792,662,000 bus in July and down 21% from 1,003,856,000 bus in 2012.

Soft red winter production was estimated at 542,145,000 bus, up 1% from 538,947,000 bus in July and up 29% from 419,801,000 bus in 2012.

Soft white winter wheat outturn was estimated at 197,236,000 bus, down 2% from 199,549,000 bus in July and down 5% from 208,295,000 bus in 2012. Hard white outturn was estimated at 11,860,000 bus, down 1% from 11,937,000 bus in July and down 10% from 13,250,000 bus last year.

In its first survey-based rice crop forecast of the season, the U.S.D.A. forecast 2013 U.S. rice production at 181,364,000 cwts, down 9% from 199,479,000 cwts in 2012.

Sorghum production in 2013 was forecast at 358,892,000 bus, up 45% from 246,932,000 bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2013 oats production at 75,210,000 bus, up 1% from 74,459,000 bus in July and up 17% from 64,024,000 bus in 2012 but still the third lowest production on record.

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