U.S. 2014 wheat carryover down 4% from July

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2014, at 551 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 4%, from 576 million bus as the July projection and down 167 million bus, or 23%, from 718 million bus on June 1, 2013.

The U.S.D.A. 2014 wheat carryover projection was below the average trade expectation of 572 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2013 U.S. all-wheat production at 2,114 million bus, unchanged from the July projection but down 155 million bus, or 7%, from 2,269 million bus in 2012, based on harvested area projected at 45.7 million acres and yield at 46.2 bus an acre, the same as July.

U.S. wheat imports in 2013-14 were projected at 130 million bus, unchanged from July and up 7 million from 2012-13. Total supply was projected at 2,962 million bus, unchanged from July, and down 172 million bus, or 5%, from 3,134 million bus in 2012-13.

Total 2013-14 domestic use of wheat was projected at 1,311 million bus, unchanged from July, but down 98 million bus, or 7%, from 1,409 million bus in 2012-13. Wheat used for food in 2013-14 was forecast at 958 million bus, unchanged from July and up 1% from 945 million bus in 2012-13. Seed use was seen at 73 million bus, unchanged from July. Feed and residual use at 280 million bus was unchanged from July and down 110 million bus, or 28%, from 390 million bus in 2012-13.

Exports were projected at 1,100 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 2%, from 1,075 million bus projected in July and up 93 million bus, or 9%, from 1,007 million bus in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 2,411 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 1%, from 2,386 million bus in July but down slightly from 2,416 million bus in 2012-13.

The all-wheat average price for 2013-14 was projected at $6.40@7.60 a bu, down from $6.45@7.75 as the July forecast and compared with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13.

The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 197 million bus, down 12 million bus from the July projection and down 43% from 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 111 million bus, down 2 million from July and down 13 million bus from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 170 million bus, down 11 million bus from July but up 5 million bus from 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 51 million bus, down 2 million bus from the previous projection and down 12 million bus from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 23 million bus, up 3 million from July and the same as in 2013.

The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,837 million bus, down 122 million bus from the July projection but up 1,118 million bus, or 155%, from a downwardly revised 719 million bus in 2013. The U.S.D.A. 2014 U.S. corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 1,970 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. corn production at a record 13,763 million bus, down 187 million bus from the July forecast but up 28% from 10,780 million bus in 2012. The corn harvested area was forecast at 89.1 million acres, and the average corn yield was forecast at 154.4 bus per acre.

The U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 220 million bus, down 75 million bus, or 25%, from the July projection but up 95 million bus, or 76%, from 125 million bus in 2013. The 2014 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was above the average trade forecast of 263 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 U.S. soybean production at 3,255 million bus, down 165 million bus from the July forecast but up 240 million bus, or 8%, from 3,015 million bus in 2012. The harvested area was forecast at 76.4 million acres, and the average soybean yield was forecast at 42.6 bus an acre.
U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2014, was projected at 30.4 million cwts, up 1.8 million, or 6%, from 28.6 million cwts in July but down 4 million cwts, or 12%, from 34.6 million cwts in 2013.

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