U.S.D.A. raises 2014 wheat carryover to 561 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 12 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 561 million bus, up 10 million bus from the August projection but down 157 million bus, or 22%, from 718 million bus in 2013. If the carryover forecast is realized, the June 1, 2014, wheat inventory would be the smallest since 306 million bus in 2008, which, in turn, was the smallest since 1948. It would compare with 791 million bus as the recent-five year average ending stocks and would be similar to the June 1 inventory in 2006 at 571 million bus.

The increase in the carryover forecast from the August outlook was the result of a 10-million-bu hike in forecast imports in 2013-14 to 140 million bus as all other all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts were unchanged.

The U.S.D.A.’s all-wheat production forecast at 2,114 million bus was unchanged from August and was down 155 million bus, or 7%, from 2,269 million bus in 2012. The U.S.D.A. as a rule doesn’t update its wheat production forecast in either its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates or its September Crop Production report. The next official wheat production estimate will be released at the end of September in the department’s Small Grains Summary 2013. The 2013-14 wheat supply was forecast at 2,972 million bus, up 10 million bus from the August projection because of the 10-million-bu hike in the import forecast.

Domestic wheat usage forecasts for 2013-14 were unchanged from August with food use at a record 958 million bus, up 13 million bus from 2012-13, seed use at 73 million bus, unchanged from the previous year, and feed and residual use at 280 million bus, down 110 million bus, or 28%, from 390 million bus in 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A.’s export forecast for 2013-14 also was unchanged from August at 1,100 million bus, which was up 93 million bus, or 9%, from the 2012-13 outgo of 1,007 million bus.

The average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at $6.50@7.50 a bu compared with the August projected range of $6.40@7.60 a bu and with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13 and $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A made several adjustments to its supply-and-demand forecasts by class. The hard red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 197 million bus, unchanged from the August outlook as a 10-million-bu reduction in forecast domestic use, to 532 million bus, was offset by an increase in forecast exports to 415 million bus. The 2013 hard red winter wheat carryover was 343 million bus. The 2014 hard red winter wheat carryover was forecast to be the smallest since 138 million bus in 2008 and would compare with 337 million bus as the recent five-year average carryover.

The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 180 million bus, up 10 million bus from the August projection and up 15 million bus from 165 million bus in 2013. The increase was tied to a forecast 10-million-bu hike in forecast spring wheat imports from Canada to 52 million bus. On the use side of the balance sheet, forecast spring wheat domestic use in 2013-14 was raised 10 million bus, to 287 million bus.

This was offset by a 10-million-bu decrease in the export forecast to 225 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2014 soft red winter wheat carryover at 106 million bus, down 5 million bus from the August projection and down 18 million bus from 2013. The decrease from August was because of a lower forecast for soft red winter wheat imports. The U.S.D.A. forecast imports at 20 million bus.

The white wheat supply-and-demand forecasts were unchanged from August. The carryover was forecast at 51 million bus, down 12 million bus from 2013.

The 2014 durum carryover was forecast at 28 million bus, up 5 million bus from the August projection and equal to the 2013 carryover. The higher carryover forecast was linked to a higher forecast for imports from Canada to 51 million bus.

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