U.S. 2013-14 sugar carryover raised from August

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2014, at 2,333,000 short tons, raw value, up 308,000 tons, or 15%, from its August projection and up 118,000 tons, or 5%, from 2,215,000 tons forecast for Oct. 1, 2013, which was lowered 94,000 tons, or 4%, from August.

The 2013-14 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 19.5%, up from 16.9% as the August projection and compared with 18.4% as the 2012-13 ratio, which was down from 19.6% forecast in August.

For 2012-13, the U.S.D.A. left domestic production unchanged but increased imports 106,000 tons based on a 53,000-ton increase in tariff rate quota imports and a 53,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, which were forecast at a record high 2,121,000 tons. Sugar use for 2012-13 was forecast at 12,005,000 tons, up 200,000 tons, or 2%, from August based on a 70,000-ton increase in exports, at 270,000 tons, and a 130,000-ton increase in deliveries for food, at 11,600,000 tons.

Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,703,000 tons, up 250,000 tons, or 3%, from August but down 312,000 tons, or 3%, from 9,015,000 tons in 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. projected beet sugar production at 4,950,000 tons, up 150,000 tons, or 3%, from August but down 150,000 tons, or 3%, from 2012, and cane sugar production at 3,753,000 tons, up 100,000 tons, or 3%, from August but down 162,000 tons, or 4%, from a year earlier.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2013 U.S. sugar beet production at 30,913,000 tons, up 885,000 tons, or 3% from 30,028,000 tons forecast in August but down 12% from 2012, based on a forecast average yield of 26.1 tons per acre, up 0.7 tons from 25.4 tons forecast in August but down 11% from 2012, and harvested area of 1,183,800 acres, unchanged from August but down 2% from last year.

Sugar cane production was forecast at 31,251,000 tons, up 880,000 tons, or 3%, from 30,371,000 tons in August but down 3% from 2012 based on a forecast average yield of 34.3 tons per acre, up 1 ton from August but down 4% from last year, and harvested area of 911,100 acres, unchanged from August but up 1% from 2012.

U.S. imports in 2013-14 were projected at 3,400,000 tons, up 172,000 tons, or 5%, from 3,228,000 tons as the August projection, and up 174,000 tons, or 5%, from 3,226,000 tons in 2012-13. T.R.Q. imports were projected at 1,332,000 tons, up 210,000 tons, or 19%, from August and up 366,000 tons, or 38%, from 966,000 tons in 2012-13. Other program imports were projected at 110,000 tons, unchanged from August and down 19,000 tons, or 15%, from 129,000 tons in 2012-13. Imports from Mexico were projected at 1,948,000 tons, down 38,000 tons, or 2%, from 1,986,000 tons in August and down 173,000 tons, or 8%, from 2,121,000 tons in 2012-13.

Total sugar supply was projected at 14,318,000 tons, up 328,000 tons, or 2%, from 13,990,000 tons in August and up 98,000 tons, or 1%, from 14,220,000 tons in the current year.

Forecast sugar use was raised 20,000 tons based on a like increase in food deliveries, projected at 11,600,000 tons for 2013-14, which was unchanged from the current-year forecast. Total sugar use was projected at 11,985,000 tons, also up 20,000 tons from August, but down 20,000 tons from 12,005,000 tons this year.

Sugar production in Mexico was estimated at 6,973,000 tonnes, actual weight, in 2012-13, down 2,000 tonnes from the August estimate. Imports were forecast at 150,000 tonnes, up 13,000 tonnes from August. Domestic use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,635,000 tonnes, down 140,000 tonnes from August, exports at 2,000,000 tonnes, up 45,000 tonnes, and ending stocks at 1,454,000 tonnes, up 106,000 tonnes, or 8%, from August.

Sugar production in Mexico in 2013-14 was projected at 6,200,000 tonnes, actual weight, unchanged from the August projection but down 773,000 tonnes, or 11%, from 2012-13. Imports were unchanged from August at 137,000 tonnes. Domestic use next year was projected at 4,850,000 tonnes, up 10,000 tonnes from August and up 215,000 tonnes, or 5%, from 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,777,000 tonnes, down 33,000 tonnes from 1,810,000 tonnes in August and down 223,000 tonnes, or 11%, from the current year. Projected 2013-14 ending stocks were 1,164,000 tonnes, up 129,000 tonnes, or 12%, from 1,035,000 tonnes projected in August but down 290,000 tonnes, or 20%, from 1,454,000 tonnes in 2012-13.

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