World 2013-14 wheat ending stocks forecast up 2%

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 176.28 million tonnes, up 2% from the August projection of 172.99 million tonnes and up about 1% from 173.85 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.

World wheat production for 2013-14 was projected at a record 708.89 million tonnes, up 3.51 million tonnes from August and up 53.69 million tonnes, or 8%, from 655.2 million tonnes in 2012-13. Global wheat consumption was projected at a record 706.47 million tonnes, down slightly from the August forecast and up 25.8 million tonnes, or 4%, from 680.67 million tonnes in 2012-13. World wheat exports were projected at 154.52 million tonnes, up slightly from August and up 16.2 million tonnes, or 12%, from 138.32 million tonnes in 2012-13.

Commenting on its production forecasts, the U.S.D.A. said, “Higher production in Canada, the European Union and the former Soviet Union more than offsets reductions for Iran and Paraguay.

“Production is raised 2 million tonnes for Canada as cool July weather supported flowering and reproduction, and abundant soil moisture and favorably warm, dry weather in August aided grain fill and maturity across the Prairie provinces,” the U.S.D.A. elaborated. “E.U. production is raised 1.5 million tonnes as harvest results confirm increases from the United Kingdom and Germany in the west to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria in the east.”

F.S.U. production was raised 1 million tonnes while production was lowered 1 million tonnes for Iran and 0.4 million tonnes for Paraguay.

World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 151.42 million tonnes, up 1.25 million tonnes from the August forecast and up 28.83 million tonnes, or 19%, from the 122.59 million tonnes forecast for 2012-13.

World corn production was projected at 956.67 million tonnes, down slightly from August but up 96.61 million tonnes, or 11%, from 860.06 million tonnes in 2012-13. Global corn consumption was projected at 927.84 million tonnes in 2013-14, down 2.25 million tonnes from August but up 58.53 million tonnes, or 10%, from 869.31 million tonnes this year. World corn exports were projected at 102.72 million tonnes, down 1.48 million tonnes from August but up 8.37 million tonnes, or 9%, from 94.35 million tonnes in 2012-13.

“Global 2013-14 corn consumption is lowered with reductions in corn feeding in Argentina, Canada, and Serbia more than offsetting an increase for South Korea where wheat feeding is reduced this month,” the U.S.D.A. said. “South Korea corn imports are raised accordingly. Corn exports for 2013-14 are lowered for Argentina, Paraguay, and Serbia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 1.3 million tonnes higher with larger stocks in Brazil and the United States.”

World soybean ending stocks for the 2013-14 marketing year were projected at 71.54 million tonnes, down slightly from August but up 9.99 million tonnes, or 16%, from 61.55 million tonnes in 2012-13.

World soybean production for 2013-14 was projected at 281.66 million tonnes, down slightly from August but up 14.18 million tonnes, or 5%, from 267.48 million tonnes in 2012-13. Global soybean consumption was projected at 268.89 million tonnes in 2013-14, up slightly from August and up 10.98 million tonnes, or 4%, from 257.91 million tonnes this year. World soybean exports were projected at 107.29 million tonnes, down slightly from August but up 9.55 million tonnes, or 10%, from 97.74 million tonnes in 2012-13.
Brazilian soybean production in 2013-14 was projected at a record 88 million, up 3 million tonnes from the August forecast and up 6 million tonnes from 2012-13.

Global rice carryover was projected at 107.39 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 2.22 million tonnes from 105.17 million tonnes in 2012-13. World rice production was projected at 476.77 million tonnes, up 7.78 million tonnes from 468.99 million tonnes in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 474.55 million tonnes, up 5.89 million tonnes from 468.66 million tonnes in the current year.

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