U.S.D.A. raises 2014 wheat carryover 4 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 8 forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 565 million bus, up 4 million bus from the September projection but down 153 million bus, or 21%, from 718 million bus in 2013. The forecast was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 527 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. estimated U.S. wheat production in 2013 at 2,130 million bus, which was 16 million bus higher than the projection in the September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports and 2 million bus higher than indicated in the U.S.D.A.’s Sept. 30 Small Grains 2013 Summary. The U.S.D.A. noted its spring wheat estimate was raised 2 million bus from the Small Grains Summary and its durum production estimate was raised slightly after a resurvey of North Dakota and Montana producers, who weren’t finished harvesting when the survey for the Small Grains Summary was completed.

The U.S. wheat supply in 2013-14 was forecast at 2,998 million bus, up 26 million bus from the September projection but down 4% from 3,131,000 bus in 2012-13. The higher supply forecast reflected the 16-million-bu hike in the production estimate and a higher forecast for wheat imports. The U.S.D.A. forecast 2013-14 wheat imports at a record 150 million bus, up 10 million bus from September and up 27 million bus from 2012-13.

U.S. wheat disappearance in 2013-14 was forecast at 2,433 million bus, up 22 million bus from the September projection and up 19 million bus from 2012-13. Domestic use of wheat was forecast at 1,333 million bus, up 22 million bus from the September projection but down 73 million bus, or 5%, from 1,406 million bus in 2012-13.

Food use of wheat was forecast at 950 million bus, down 8 million bus from the September projection but up 5 million bus from 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. said the lower food use forecast reflected the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers Association “with hard red winter wheat food use reduced.”

Seed use of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at 73 million bus, unchanged from September and from 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A. forecast feed and residual use of wheat in 2013-14 at 310 million bus, up 30 million bus from the September projection but down 78 million bus, or 20%, from 388 million bus in 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. said the upward adjustment in the feed and residual use forecast was based on indicated June-August wheat disappearance as reported in the Sept. 1, 2013, Grain Stocks report.

U.S. wheat exports in 2013-14 were forecast at 1,100 million bus, unchanged from the September projection but up 93 million bus from 1,007 million bus in 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.70@7.30 a bu, which compared with a range of $6.50@7.50 projected in September and with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13 and $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,887 million bus, up 32 million bus from the September forecast and up 1,063 million bus, or 129%, from 824 million bus in 2012-13.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 170 million bus, up 20 million bus from the September projection and up 29 million bus from 141 million bus in 2013.
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