U.S. 2013-14 sugar carryover raised from September

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2014, at 2,398,000 short tons, raw value, up 65,000 tons, or 3%, from its September projection and up 215,000 tons, or 10%, from 2,183,000 tons forecast for Oct. 1, 2013, which was lowered 32,000 tons, or 1%, from September.

The U.S.D.A. did not issue its WASDE or Crop Production reports in October due to the partial federal government shutdown.

The 2013-14 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 19.9%, up from 19.5% as the September projection and compared with 18.2% as the 2012-13 ratio, which was down from 18.4% forecast in September.

For 2012-13, the domestic production was reduced 38,000 tons to 8,977,000 tons, total imports were reduced 2,000 tons, to 3,224,000 tons, and total supply was reduced 40,000 tons, to 14,180,000 tons. Imports from Mexico were increased 3,000 tons to a record 2,124,000 tons for 2012-13. Total sugar use for 2012-13 was forecast at 11,997,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from September. Deliveries for food were estimated at 11,467,000 tons, down 133,000 tons from September, which was mostly offset by a 121,000-ton increase in the “other” delivery category.

Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,878,000 tons, up 175,000 tons, or 2%, from September. The U.S.D.A. projected beet sugar production at 5,025,000 tons, up 75,000 tons from September, and cane sugar production at 3,853,000 tons, up 100,000 tons.

U.S. imports in 2013-14 were projected at 3,372,000 tons, down 28,000 tons from 3,400,000 tons as the September projection, but up 148,000 tons from 3,224,000 tons in 2012-13. T.R.Q. imports were projected at 1,332,000 tons, unchanged from September but up 375,000 tons, or 39%, from 957,000 tons in 2012-13. Other program imports were projected at 110,000 tons, unchanged from September but down 26,000 tons from 136,000 tons in 2012-13. Imports from Mexico were projected at 1,920,000 tons, down 28,000 tons from 1,948,000 tons in September and down 204,000 tons, or 10%, from 2,124,000 tons in 2012-13.

Total sugar supply was projected at 14,433,000 tons, up 115,000 tons, or 1%, from 14,318,000 tons in September and up 253,000 tons, or 2%, from 14,180,000 tons in 2012-13.

Forecast domestic sugar deliveries in 2013-14 were unchanged at 11,785,000 tons, exports were increased 50,000 tons, to 250,000 tons, and total use was increased a like 50,000 tons to 12,035,000 tons from September and was up 38,000 tons from 11,997,000 tons in 2012-13.

Sugar production in Mexico was estimated at 6,975,000 tonnes, actual weight, in 2012-13, up 2,000 tonnes from the September estimate. Imports were forecast at 217,000 tonnes, up 67,000 tonnes from September. Domestic use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,726,000 tonnes, up 91,000 tonnes from September, exports at 1,972,000 tonnes, down 28,000 tonnes, and ending stocks at 1,460,000 tonnes, up 6,000 tonnes from September.

Sugar production in Mexico in 2013-14 was projected at 6,500,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 300,000 tonnes from the September projection but down 475,000 tonnes, or 7%, from 2012-13. Imports were raised 81,000 tonnes from September to 218,000 tonnes. Domestic use was projected at 4,850,000 tonnes, unchanged from September and up 124,000 tonnes, or 3%, from 2012-13. Exports were projected at 2,344,000 tonnes, up 567,000 tonnes, or 32%, from 1,777,000 tonnes in September and up 372,000 tonnes, or 19%, from 2012-13. Projected 2013-14 ending stocks were 985,000 tonnes, down 179,000 tonnes, or 15%, from 1,164,000 tonnes projected in September and down 475,000 tonnes, or 33%, from 1,460,000 tonnes in 2012-13.
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