I.G.C. raises crop forecasts for wheat, rice, corn and soybeans
by Jay Sjerven
LONDON — The International Grains Council on Nov. 28 revised upward its forecasts for 2013-14 world wheat, corn and soybean production. Each crop’s outturn was projected to set a new record. The I.G.C. lowered its forecast for world rice production, but even with the downward adjustment to the projection, the world rice crop also was expected to be the largest harvested.
The I.G.C. forecast world wheat production in 2013-14 at 698.4 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from its October Grain Market Report and up 43.5 million tonnes, or 7%, from 654.9 million tonnes in 2012-13. The previous record world wheat crop was harvested in 2011-12 at 695.4 million tonnes. The increase in the wheat forecast from October was attributed primarily to higher production estimates for China and the United States.
The I.G.C. estimated China’s 2013 wheat production at 120 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the October estimate but still below the record outturn of 120.6 million tonnes in 2012-13. U.S. wheat production was estimated at 58 million tonnes, up 0.5 million tonnes from October but down 3.8 million tonnes from 61.8 million tonnes in 2012.
The I.G.C. forecast world corn production at 949.8 million tonnes, up 1.4 million tonnes from its October outlook and up 87.1 million tonnes, or 10%, from 862.7 million tonnes in 2012-13. The current record world corn crop was harvested in 2011-12 at 876.6 million tonnes. The higher forecast for the current year resulted from a higher estimate for the United States.
World soybean production in 2013-14 was forecast at a record 285.3 million tonnes, up 3.1 million tonnes from the October projection and up 14.5 million tonnes, or 5%, from 270.8 million tonnes in 2012-13, the current record. World rice production was forecast at a record 470.7 million tonnes, down 2.9 million tonnes from the October outlook but up 1.6 million tonnes from 469.1 million tonnes in 2012-13, the current record.