U.S.D.A. lowers corn and soybean carryover forecasts

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Dec. 10 lowered its 2014 carryover forecasts for corn and soybeans. In each case, the revised carryover forecast fell below the average of pre-report trade projections. But given the bearish supply-and-demand report on wheat, corn and soybean futures prices failed to rally in midday trading.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2014, at 1,792 million bus, down 95 million bus from the November projection but more than double the 2013 carryover at 824 million bus. The average of pre-report trade projections was around 1,860 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. raised its supply forecast for 2013-14 by 5 million bus, to 14,842,000 bus, because of a 5-million-bu increase in forecast imports to 30 million bus. The 2013 corn production estimate was unchanged at 13,989 million bus.

Domestic disappearance of corn in 2013-14 was forecast at 11,600 million bus, up 50 million bus from the November projection and up 1,223 million bus, or 12%, from 10,377 million bus in 2012-13. The increase in domestic use was tied to a 50-million-bu increase in forecast corn use in the manufacture of ethanol to 4,950 million bus. The December forecast was up 302 million bus, or 6%, from 4,648 million bus in 2012-13. Feed and residual use of corn in 2013-14 was forecast at 5,200 million bus, unchanged from November and up 867 million bus, or 20%, from 4,333 million bus in 2012-13.

Corn exports were forecast at 1,450 million bus, up 50 million bus from the November outlook and nearly double the 2012-13 outgo of 731 million bus.

Total corn use in 2013-14 was forecast at 13,050 million bus, up 100 million bus from the November projection and up 1,942,000 bus, or 17%, from 11,108 million bus in 2012-13.

The season average farm price of wheat was forecast at $4.05@4.75 a bu compared with $4.10@4.90 as the November range and $6.89 in 2012-13 and $6.22 in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, at 150 million bus, down 20 million bus from the November projection but up 11 million bus from 141 million bus as the 2013 carryover. Pre-report trade projections for the carryover averaged about 154 million bus.

 The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2013-14 soybean supply at 3,423 million bus, up 10 million bus from the November projection because of a 10-million-bu increase in forecast imports to 25 million bus. The 2013 crop estimate was unchanged at 3,258 million bus.

The 2013-14 soybean crush was forecast at 1,690 million bus, up 5 million bus from the November outlook and compared with 1,689 million bus in 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. commented, “Soybean crush is raised 5 million bus to 1,690 million bus as strong foreign demand for soybean meal, led by the European Union and Southeast Asia, more than offsets a reduction in domestic soybean meal use.”

Soybean exports were forecast at 1,475 million bus, up 25 million bus from the November projection and up 155 million bus, or 12%, from 1,320 million bus in 2012-13.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2013-14 was projected at $11.50@13.50 a bu compared with $11.15@13.15 as the November projected range and $14.40 in 2012-13 and $12.50 in 2011-12.
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