U.S.D.A. raises forecast value of fiscal 2014 ag exports

by Jay Sjerven
Share This:
Search for similar articles by keyword: [Corn], [Soybean], [Wheat]

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Dec. 2 forecast the value of U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2014 (Oct. 1, 2013, to Sept.30, 2014) at $137 billion, up $2 billion from the August projection but down $3.9 billion, or 3%, from a record $140.9 billion in fiscal 2013. The increase in the forecast from August was attributed primarily to strong foreign demand for U.S. soybeans and soybean meal and higher forecast prices for those commodities.

“Compared with the August forecast, grain and feed exports are forecast down $700 million, mostly due to lower unit values for wheat and certain feed products,” the U.S.D.A. said. “The fiscal 2014 forecast for oilseed exports is up $2.4 billion on higher unit values and record early-season sales of soybean and soybean meal. Horticultural exports are unchanged at a record $34.5 billion. The forecast for combined livestock, poultry and dairy is raised $700 million to a record $31.8 billion on higher pork, dairy and beef exports.”

The value of U.S. wheat exports (excluding flour) in fiscal 2014 was forecast at $7.2 billion, down from $7.7 billion as the August projection and down 27% from $10,086 million in fiscal 2013. The value assumed a lower unit value for wheat and a forecast export volume of 26.1 million tonnes, down from 27.2 million tonnes as the August projection and down 16% from 30.992 million tonnes in fiscal 2013.

“Competition with Canada is projected to intensify as it tries to move its record crop,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Demand from both Brazil and China has declined for U.S. wheat. Good planting conditions in the Northern Hemisphere for next year’s crop, coupled with abundant global feed grain supplies, are expected to pressure prices downward.”

The value of U.S. corn exports in fiscal 2014 was forecast at $7.4 billion, down $100 million from the August projection but up 33% from $5,574 million in fiscal 2013. Lower unit values offset a forecast increase in export volume. U.S. corn exports in fiscal 2014 were forecast at 36 million tonnes, up 3.5 million tonnes from the August projection and nearly twice the fiscal 2013 outgo of 18.189 million tonnes.

The value of U.S. soybean exports for fiscal 2014 was forecast at $19.9 billion, up $1.5 billion from the August projection but down 5% from $20,887 million in fiscal 2013. Soybean export volume in fiscal 2014 was forecast at 39.5 million tonnes, up 1.8 million tonnes from the August projection and up 13% from 35.020 million tonnes in fiscal 2013.

The value of soybean meal exports in the current fiscal year was forecast at $4.2 billion, up $900 million from the August projection but down from $5,475 million in fiscal 2013. The soybean meal export volume was forecast at 9.3 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from the August outlook but down from 10.083 million tonnes in fiscal 2013. The value of soybean oil exports in fiscal 2014 was forecast at $500 million, down $200 million from the August projection and down 56% from $1,148 million in fiscal 2013. The volume of soybean oil exports was forecast at 500,000 tonnes, down 100,000 tonnes from the August projection and down 49% from 982,000 tonnes in fiscal 2013.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the value of U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 2014 at a record $109.5 billion, down $3.5 billion from the August projection but $5.7 billion higher than $103.8 billion in fiscal 2013, the current record.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the agricultural balance of trade surplus in fiscal 2014 at $27.5 billion, up $5.5 from the August outlook but down from $37.1 billion in fiscal 2014. The U.S.D.A. observed this would be the smallest trade surplus since 2009.
Add a Comment
We welcome your thoughtful comments. Please comply with our Community rules.








The views expressed in the comments section of Baking Business News do not reflect those of Baking Business News or its parent company, Sosland Publishing Co., Kansas City, Mo. Concern regarding a specific comment may be registered with the Editor by clicking the Report Abuse link.