U.S.D.A. raises wheat carryover 33 million bus

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Jan. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 608 million bus, up 33 million bus from the December projection but down 110 million bus, or 15%, from 718 million bus in 2013. The forecast was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 559 million bus.

“U.S. wheat supplies for 2013-14 are unchanged this month, but lower expected use raised projected ending stocks 33 million bushels,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 197 million bus, up 3 million bus from the December projection but down 43% from 343 million bus in 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 117 million bus, up 28 million bus from December but down 7 million bus from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 208 million bus, up 6 million bus from December and up 43 million bus, or 26%, from 165 million bus in 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 59 million bus, up 1 million bus from the previous projection but down 4 million bus from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 26 million bus, down 5 million from December and up 3 million bus from 2013.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.60@7.00 a bu, which compared with a range of $6.65@7.15 a bu projected in December and with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,631 million bus, down 161 million bus, or 9%, from the December forecast but up 810 million bus, or 99%, from 821 million bus in 2013.

“Projected corn use for 2013-14 is raised with feed and residual use projected up 100 million bushels based on September-November disappearance indicated by the Dec. 1 stocks estimate,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 150 million bus, unchanged   from the December projection and up 9 million bus from 141 million bus in 2013.

The U.S.D.A. corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 1,844 million bus, and the U.S.D.A. soybean number was slightly below the trade average of 151 million bus.

CME Group corn and soybean futures prices traded higher after the WASDE and several other U.S.D.A. reports on Friday, while wheat futures traded lower.

The U.S.D.A. projected  2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 185.4 million tonnes, up 1% from the December projection of 182.78 million tonnes and up 5% from 176.13 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.

“Global wheat ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tonnes higher mostly on increases for China and the United States,” the U.S.D.A. said.

World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 160.23 million tonnes, down 2.23 million tonnes, or 1%, from 162.46 million tonnes in December but up 27.25 million tonnes, or 20%, from the 132.98 million tonnes in 2012-13.

World soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were projected at 72.33 million tonnes, up 1.71 million tonnes from December and up 11.78 million tonnes, or 19%, from 60.55 million tonnes in 2012-13.

Global rice carryover was projected at 105.18 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 91,000 tonnes from December but down 1.26 million tonnes  from 107.12 million tonnes in 2012-13.
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