U.S.D.A. lowers wheat carryover 50 million bus

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Feb. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 558 million bus, down 50 million bus from 608 million bus as the January projection and down 160 million bus, or 22%, from 718 million bus in 2013. The forecast was below the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 602 million bus.

“U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 50 million bushels lower as higher expected food use and exports more than offset an increase in projected imports,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 181 million bus, down 16 million bus from the January projection and down 47% from 343 million bus in 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 112 million bus, down 5 million bus from January and down 12 million bus from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 189 million bus, down 19 million bus from January but up 24 million bus, or 15%, from 165 million bus in 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 49 million bus, down 10 million bus from the previous projection and down 14 million bus from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 26 million bus, unchanged from January and up 3 million bus from 2013.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.65@6.95 a bu, which compared with a range of $6.60@7 a bu projected in January and with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13.

The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,481 million bus, down 150 million bus, or 9%, from the January forecast but up 660 million bus, or 80%, from 821 million bus in 2013.

“Global trade data and strong export sales support this month’s outlook for increased world corn imports,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Reduced foreign export prospects also lower competition for U. S. corn in the world market. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 150 million bus lower with the export increase.”

The soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 150 million bus, unchanged from the January projection and up 9 million bus from 141 million bus in 2013.

The U.S.D.A. corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 162 million bus, and the U.S.D.A. soybean number was above the trade average of 143 million bus.

CME Group corn, wheat and soybean oil futures prices traded higher while the rest of the soy complex declined after the WASDE report at midday Monday.

The U.S.D.A. projected  2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 183.73 million tonnes, down 1% from the January projection of 185.4 million tonnes and up 7.89 million tonnes from 175.84 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.

“Global wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 1.7 million tons lower with the largest declines for the United States and European Union,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Smaller reductions in ending stocks are expected for Algeria and Russia. Partly offsetting are stocks increases for Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.”

World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 157.3 million tonnes, down 2.93 million tonnes, or 2%, from 160.23 million tonnes in January but up 23.3 million tonnes, or 17%, from the 134 million tonnes in 2012-13.

World soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were projected at 73.01 million tonnes, up slightly from January and up 14.36 million tonnes, or 25%, from 58.65 million tonnes in 2012-13.

The global rice carryover was projected at 105.03 million tonnes in 2013-14, down slightly from January and down 1.82 million tonnes from 106.85 million tonnes in 2012-13.
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