U.S. wheat carryover unchanged from February

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its March 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 558 million bus, unchanged from the February projection and down 160 million bus, or 22%, from 718 million bus in 2013. The forecast was below the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 568 million bus.

“There are no changes to the 2013-14 U.S. all wheat supply and use projections this month,” the U.S.D.A. said. “A 15-million-bu increase in projected hard red spring wheat exports is offset by a decrease for soft red winter wheat, with both changes reflecting the pace of sales and shipments. Projected ending stocks for both classes are adjusted accordingly.”

The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 181 million bus, unchanged from the February projection but down 47% from 343 million bus in 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 127 million bus, up 15 million bus from February and up 3 million bus from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 174 million bus, down 15 million bus from February but up 9 million bus from 165 million bus in 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 49 million bus, unchanged from the previous projection but down 14 million bus from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 26 million bus, unchanged from February and up 3 million bus from 2013.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.75@6.95 a bu, which compared with a range of $6.65@6.95 a bu projected in February and with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,456 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 2%, from the February forecast but up 635 million bus, or 77%, from 821 million bus in 2013.

“Corn exports are projected 25 million bushels higher on stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales also support the higher figure,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 145 million bus, down 5 million bus from the February projection but up 4 million bus from 2013.

The U.S.D.A. corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 1,487 million bus, and the U.S.D.A. soybean number was above the trade average of about 141 million bus.

U.S. oats carryover on June 1, 2014, was projected at 30 million bus, down 3 million bus from February and down 6 million bus from 2013. Oats imports were projected at 85 million bus, down 10 million bus from the February forecast and down 8 million bus from 2013.

“Oats imports are projected 10 million bushels lower as Canadian logistical problems reduce the availability of importable supplies,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Small reductions in U.S. oats domestic use and ending stocks are projected.”

CME Group corn, soybean, wheat and oats futures prices, as well as Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures, traded lower to sharply lower around midday after the WASDE report.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 183.81 million tonnes, up slightly from the February projection of 183.73 million tonnes and up 7.89 million tonnes from 175.92 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.

“World wheat consumption is raised slightly for 2013-14 with increased use for India, Iran, Australia, Iraq and Morocco more than offsetting lower feed use for the European Union and Russia, and for South Korea, where wheat imports are lowered,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Wheat feeding is raised for Australia as drought reduces sorghum supplies and boosts the use of grain in livestock rations. Global wheat ending stocks are nearly unchanged.”

World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 158.47 million tonnes, up 1.17 million tonnes, or 1%, from 157.3 million tonnes in February and up 23.8 million tonnes, or 18%, from 134.67 million tonnes in 2012-13.

World soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were projected at 70.64 million tonnes, down 2.37 million tonnes from February but up 12.85 million tonnes, or 22%, from 57.79 million tonnes in 2012-13.

Global rice carryover was projected at 111.71 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 6.68 tonnes from February and up 0.73 million tonnes from 110.98 million tonnes in 2012-13.
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