Trade expects higher wheat carryover

by Ron Sterk
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KANSAS CITY — Traders expect 2014 carryover forecasts to be raised for wheat but lowered for corn and soybeans in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

A survey by Dow Jones Newswires showed traders expect an average wheat carryover on June 1, 2014, of 581 million bus, up from 558 million bus forecast by the U.S.D.A. in March and compared with 718 million bus in 2013.

The survey showed a trade average of 1,403 million bus for corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, down from the U.S.D.A.’s March forecast of 1,456 million bus but above 2013 carryover of 821 million bus.

The trade expects the U.S.D.A. to forecast Sept. 1, 2014, soybean carryover at 139 million bus, down from 145 million bus in March and 141 million bus in 2013.

The survey also revealed the trade expects the U.S.D.A. to slightly reduce from March its forecasts of global carryover for wheat to 183.7 million tonnes, for corn to 157.9 million tonnes and for soybeans to 70.3 million tonnes.

While the April WASDE typically is not a market-moving report, the trade closely will watch to see if the U.S.D.A. reduces its forecast of U.S. wheat exports, which have been running behind the pace needed to achieve the department’s March forecast of 1,175 million bus in 2013-14.

The U.S.D.A. WASDE report is scheduled to be released at 11:00 a.m. Central Time April 9.
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