U.S.D.A. again cuts U.S. sugar carryover forecast

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2014, at 1,610,000 short tons, raw value, down 73,000 tons, or 4%, from its March projection and down 548,000 tons, or 25%, from 2,158,000 tons on Oct. 1, 2013, which was lowered 2,000 tons due to a like increase in deliveries for food.

The 2013-14 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 13%, down from 13.6% as the March projection and down from 17.9% as the 2012-13 ratio. The changes for 2013-14 were based on a slight decrease in beginning stocks and reductions in projected beet and cane sugar production.

Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,644,000 tons, down 71,000 tons from March based on a 41,000-ton reduction in beet sugar output and a 30,000-ton reduction in cane sugar production due to a 25,000-ton cut in Florida, to 1,740,000 tons, and a 5,000-ton cut in Texas, to 130,000 tons.

Total U.S. imports in 2013-14 were projected at 3,184,000 tons, unchanged from March and down 40,000 tons from 3,224,000 tons in 2012-13. Total sugar supply was projected at 13,987,000 tons, down 73,000 tons from March.

Total sugar use for 2013-14 was projected at 12,376,000 tons, unchanged from March but up 350,000 tons, or 3%, from 2012-13. Projected 2013-14 exports were unchanged from March at 325,000 tons (up 19% from last year), food use was unchanged at 11,600,000 tons (up 1% from 2012-13), and “other” deliveries were steady at 451,000 tons (up 70% from last year).

There were no changes to the U.S.D.A.’s Mexican sugar supply and use estimates of 2012-13 or projections for 2013-14 for the second consecutive month.
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