U.S. wheat carryover up 4% from March

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 583 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 4%, from the March projection of 558 million bus but down 135 million bus, or 19%, from 718 million bus in 2013. The forecast was slightly above the average of pre-report trade estimates of about 581 million bus.

“U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 25 million bus higher with lower imports more than offset by a reduction in feed and residual use,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bus lower based on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by the March 1 stocks and revisions to the December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.”

The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 193 million bus, up 12 million bus from the March projection but down 150 million bus, or 44%, from 343 million bus in 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 125 million bus, down 2 million bus from March but up 1 million bus from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 189 million bus, up 15 million bus from March and up 24 million bus from 165 million bus in 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 54 million bus, up 5 million bus from the previous projection but down 9 million bus from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 22 million bus, down 4 million bus from March and down 1 million bus from 2013.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.75@6.95 a bu, unchanged from March, and down from $7.77 a bu estimated in 2012-13.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,331 million bus, down 125 million bus, or 9%, from the March forecast but up 510 million bus, or 62%, from 821 million bus in 2013. The change was based on a 125-million-bu increase from March in projected corn exports at 1,750 million bus, which was up 139% from 731 million bus in 2012-13.

“Continued strong export sales and a rising weekly shipment pace for U.S. corn during March support the higher expected export level as does an increase in projected global corn demand,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 135 million bus, down 10 million bus from the March projection and down 6 million bus from 2013. Soybean imports in 2013-14 were projected at 65 million bus, up 30 million bus from March, exports at a record 1,580 million bus, up 50 million bus, domestic crush at 1,685 million bus, down 5 million bus, seed use at 95 million bus, up 8 million bus, and residual at zero, down 12 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 1,403 million bus, and the U.S.D.A. soybean number also was below the trade average of about 139 million bus.

CME Group corn and wheat futures prices, as well as Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures, traded lower around midday after the WASDE report. Soybean futures were higher.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 186.68 million tonnes, up 2% from the March projection of 183.81 million tonnes and up 10.08 million tonnes from 176.60 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.

“Global wheat consumption for 2013-14 is lowered 2.4 million tonnes mostly on a 2-million-tonne reduction in China wheat feeding,” the U.S.D.A. said. “A number of smaller and mostly offsetting changes are also made in consumption for other countries. Global wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 2.9 million tons higher with the largest increases for Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, Australia and China.”

World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 158 million tonnes, down slightly from 158.47 million tonnes in March but up 23.6 million tonnes, or 18%, from 134.4 million tonnes in 2012-13.

World soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were projected at 69.42 million tonnes, down 1.22 million tonnes from March but up 11.55 million tonnes, or 20%, from 57.87 million tonnes in 2012-13.
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