U.S. 2015 sugar carryover seen down 31%

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2015, at 1,099,000 short tons, raw value, down 497,000 tons, or 31%, from 1,596,000 tons forecast as the carryover on Oct. 1, 2014.

The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 9.1%, down from 12.9% as the forecast ratio for 2013-14, which was down from 13% forecast in April.

In its first report for the new marketing year that begins Oct. 1, 2014, the U.S.D.A. projected 2014-15 U.S. beet sugar production at 4,750,000 tons, down 50,000 tons, or 1%, from 4,800,000 tons in 2013-14. U.S. cane sugar production was projected at 3,745,000 tons, up 65,000 tons, or 2%, from 3,680,000 tons in the current year. Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,495,000 tons, up slightly from 8,480,000 tons in 2013-14.

U.S. imports in 2014-15 were projected at 3,093,000 tons, down 241,000 tons, or 7%, from 3,334,000 tons in 2013-14.  Tariff rate quota imports were projected at 1,262,000 tons, down 107,000 tons, or 8%, from 1,369,000 tons forecast for 2013-14 and the minimum required under World Trade Organization agreements.

Imports of sugar from Mexico in 2014-15 were projected at 1,421,000 tons, down 424,000 tons, or 23%, from 1,845,000 tons in 2013-14, the latter of which was raised 100,000 tons from the April forecast.

Total U.S. sugar supply was projected at 13,184,000 tons, down 788,000 tons, or 6%, from 13,972,000 tons in 2013-14.

Total domestic sugar deliveries were projected at 11,835,000 tons in 2014-15, down 216,000 tons, or 2%, from 12,051,000 tons in 2013-14. Sugar deliveries for food were projected at 11,700,000 tons, up 100,000 tons, or 1%, from 11,600,000 tons in the current year. U.S. sugar exports in 2014-15 were projected at 250,000 tons, down 23% from 325,000 tons in the current year. Total sugar use was projected at 12,085,000 tons, down 291,000 tons, or 2%, from 12,376,000 tons in 2013-14.

Sugar production in Mexico in 2014-15 was projected at 6.5 million tonnes, actual weight, up 150,000 tonnes, or 2%, from 6.35 million tonnes in 2013-14, which was unchanged from April. Imports were projected at 226,000 tonnes, unchanged from 2013-14, as was domestic use, projected at 4.69 million tonnes for both years. Exports were projected at 2.036 million tonnes, down 363,000 tonnes, or 15%, from 2.399 million tonnes in 2013-14. Ending stocks in Mexico were projected at 947 million tonnes, unchanged from the current year. All 2013-14 forecasts for Mexico were unchanged from April.
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