U.S. 2014 winter wheat crop seen down 9% from 2013

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2014 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,402.5 million bus, down 132 million bus, or 9%, from 1,534 million bus in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its May 9 Crop Production report. U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, initially was projected at 540 million bus, down 7% from 583 million bus as the estimate for June 1, 2014, the U.S.D.A. said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, also released May 9.

The winter wheat production forecast was below the average trade expectation of 1,454 million bus. The 2015 carryover number matched the trade average near 540 million bus and the 2014 carryover estimate was slightly below the trade average of 586 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast Kansas winter wheat production at 260.4 million bus, down 18% from 319.2 million bus in 2013 and compared with the recent Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas wheat tour forecast of 260.7 million bus. Oklahoma production was forecast at 62.7 million bus, down 41% from 105.4 million bus in 2013 and compared with the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association’s tour forecast of 66.5 million bus. Texas outturn was forecast at 55.1 million bus, down 16% from 65.3 million bus last year.

Key numbers from the U.S.D.A.’s Crop Production and WASDE reports follow with average trade expectations as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

• U.S. 2014 all wheat production was projected at 1,963 million bus versus 2,130 million bus in 2013; trade average was 2,037 million bus.

• Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 746 million bus versus 744 million in 2013; trade average was 766 million bus.

• Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 447 million bus versus 565 million in 2013; trade average was 466 million bus.

• White winter wheat production was forecast at 209 million bus versus 225 million bus in 2013; trade average was 224 million bus. Of the total, soft white winter production was forecast at 198 million bus and hard white winter at 11 million bus.

• U.S. 2014 corn production was projected at a record 13,935 million bus, up slightly from 13,925 million bus in 2013 and above with the trade forecast near 13,736 million bus.

• U.S. 2014 soybean production was projected at a record 3,635 million bus, up 11% from 3,289 million bus in 2013 and above the average trade forecast near 3,551 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. 2014 all wheat, corn and soybean production projections were based on trend analysis, while the winter wheat forecast was based on farmer surveys as of May 1.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 1,726 million bus, up 51% from 1,146 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast of 1,618 million bus, and the 2014 number was below the average trade expectation of 1,316 million bus.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 330 million bus, up 154% from 130 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 300 million bus, and the 2014 number was slightly below the average trade expectation of 132 million bus.

Futures prices traded lower for corn, mostly lower for the soy complex and mixed for wheat following the 11:00 a.m. Central Time reports.
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