U.S. winter wheat crop down 2% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2014 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,381 million bus, down 2% from 1,402.5 million bus forecast in May and down 10%, from 1,534 million bus in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June 11 Crop Production report.

The forecast was below the average trade expectation of 1,393 million bus.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 720 million bus, down 3% from 746 million bus in May and 744 million bus in 2013, soft red winter at 454 million bus, up 2% from 447 million bus in May but down 20% from 565 million bus last year. White winter wheat outturn was forecast at 206 million bus, down 1% from 209 million bus in May and down 8% from 225 million bus in 2013. The white winter wheat forecast included hard white at 10.9 million bus, down from 11 million bus in May, and soft white at 196 million bus, down from 198 million bus last month.

The U.S.D.A. forecast Kansas winter wheat production at 243.6 million bus, down 6% from 260.4 million bus forecast in May and down 24% from 319.2 million bus in 2013. Oklahoma production was forecast at 59.4 million bus, down 5% from 62.7 million bus in May and down 44% from 105.4 million bus in 2013. Texas outturn was forecast at 47.5 million bus, down 14% from 55.1 million bus in May and down 27% from 65.3 million bus a year ago.

Indicated abandonment (area planted minus area harvested) was 10% in Kansas (12% last year), 38% in Oklahoma (39%) and 68% in Texas (64%).

U.S. average winter wheat yield was forecast at 42.4 bus per acre based on June 1 conditions, down 0.7 bu from May and down 5 bus from 2013.

Yields were forecast at 29 bus per acre in Kansas (31 bus in May and 38 bus in 2013), 18 bus per acre in Oklahoma (19 bus in May and 31 bus in 2013) and 25 bus per acre in Texas (29 bus in May and 29 bus last year).

“Drought conditions continue to plague the southern Great Plains,” the U.S.D.A. said, noting head counts were below year-ago in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Montana, but above in Colorado and Nebraska.

In its June 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A. forecast all U.S. wheat production in 2014 at 1,942 million bus, down 1% from 1,963 million bus forecast in May and down 9% from 2,130 million bus in 2013. The WASDE forecast uses survey-based numbers for winter wheat and trend data for spring wheat.

Wheat futures prices traded lower after the report, mainly on higher projections for 2014-15 wheat carryover.
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