U.S. 2014-15 wheat carryover up 86 million bus

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 660 million bus, up 86 million bus, or 15%, from 574 million bus projected in June,  and up 70 million bus, or 12%, from 590 million bus on June 1, 2014.

U.S.D.A. 2015 wheat carryover number was well above the average trade expectation of 585 million bus.

Total wheat production in 2014 was estimated at 1,992 million bus, compared with 1,942 million bus forecast in June and 2,130 million bus in 2013. Wheat imports were projected at 160 million bus, unchanged from June and down 8 million bus from 168 million bus last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,741 million bus, up 46 million bus from June but down 275 million bus, or 9%, from 3,016 million bus last year.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was projected at 2,081 million bus, down 40 million bus from June and compared with 2,426 million bus in 2013-14. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bus, down 15 million bus from June and down 72 million bus from 2013-14. Wheat exports were projected at 900 million bus, down 25 million bus from 925 million bus in June and down 282 million bus from 1,182 million bus in 2013-14.

It was the first 2014-15 breakdown by class for wheat. Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 185 million bus, down from 235 million bus in 2014, and soft red winter carryover was projected at 198 million bus, up from 114 million bus this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 191 million bus, up 22 million bus from 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 33 million bus, up 11 million bus from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 53 million bus, up three million bus from this year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 1,801 million bus, up 75 million bus from June and up 555 million bus, or 45%, from 1,246 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast of 1,773 million bus, and the 2014 number was above the trade average of 1,225 million bus.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 415 million bus, up 90 million bus, or 28%, from 325 million bus projected in June and up 275 million bus, or 196%, from 140 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 408 million bus and the 2014 number was above the average expectation of 130 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 189.54 million tonnes, compared with 188.61 million tonnes projected in June and 184.29 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

World wheat production for 2014-15 was projected at 705.17 million tonnes, compared with 701.62 million tonnes in June and 714.20 million tonnes in 2013-14, consumption at 699.62 million tonnes, compared with 699.06 million tonnes in June and 705.52 million tonnes the prior year, and exports at 151.61 million tonnes, compared with 152.08 million tonnes in June and 164.31 million tonnes last year.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 188.05 million tonnes for 2014-15 compared with 182.65 million tonnes projected in June and 173.42 million tonnes in 2013-14.

World soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 85.31 million tonnes compared with 82.88 million tonnes in June and 67.24 million tonnes in 2013-14.
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