U.S. 2014-15 wheat carryover up slightly from July

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 663 million bus, up 3 million bus from 660 million bus projected in July, and up 73 million bus, or 12%, from 590 million bus on June 1, 2014.

U.S.D.A. 2015 wheat carryover number was the same as the average trade expectation of 663 million bus. Total wheat production in 2014 was estimated at 2,030 million bus, compared with 1,992 million bus forecast in July and 2,130 million bus in 2013. Wheat imports were projected at 160 million bus, unchanged from July and down 9 million bus from 169 million bus last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,779 million bus, up 38 million bus from July but down 237 million bus, or 8%, from 3,016 million bus last year.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was projected at 2,116 million bus, up 35 million bus from July and compared with 2,426 million bus in 2013-14. Feed and residual use was projected at 155 million bus, up 10 million bus from July and down 68 million bus from 2013-14. Wheat exports were projected at 925 million bus, up 25 million bus from 900 million bus in July but down 251 million bus from 1,176 million bus in 2013-14.

Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 186 million bus, up 1 million bus from July but down from 235 million bus in 2014. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 196 million bus, down 2 million bus from July but up from 114 million bus this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 210 million bus, up 19 million bus from July and up from 169 million bus from 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 24 million bus, down 9 million bus from July but up 2 million bus from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 47 million bus, down 6 million bus from July and down 3 million bus from this year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 1,808 million bus, up 7 million bus from July and up 627 million bus, or 53%, from 1,181 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast of 2,003 million bus, and the 2014 number was below the trade average of 1,239 million bus.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 430 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 4%, from 415 million bus projected in July and up 275 million bus, or 207%, from 140 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 409 million bus, and the 2014 number was above the average expectation of 137 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 192.96 million tonnes, compared with 189.54 million tonnes projected in July and 183.66 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

World wheat production for 2014-15 was projected at a record 716.09 million tonnes, compared with 705.17 million tonnes in July and 714.07 million tonnes in 2013-14, consumption at 706.79 million tonnes, compared with 699.92 million tonnes in July and 706.05 million tonnes the prior year, and exports at 151.80 million tonnes, compared with 151.61 million tonnes in July and 165.27 million tonnes last year.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 187.82 million tonnes for 2014-15 compared with 188.05 million tonnes projected in July and 171.09 million tonnes in 2013-14.

World soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 85.62 million tonnes compared with 85.31 million tonnes in July and 67.09 million tonnes in 2013-14.
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