U.S.D.A. raises 2014-15 sugar ending stocks 51%

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Oct. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2014-15 U.S. sugar ending stocks at 1,554,000 short tons, raw value, up 51% from its September projection but down 14% from a downwardly revised 1,810,000 tons in 2013-14.

The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio rose from 8.5% in September to 12.8%, still below the U.S.D.A.’s target near 15%. The 2013-14 ratio was lowered from 15.2% in September to 14.5%.

There were no revisions to U.S. sugar use for 2013-14 or 2014-15.

For 2014-15 U.S. beet sugar production was raised 170,000 tons from September to 4,970,000 tons, while cane sugar production was lowered 19,000 tons to 3,572,000 tons.

Total 2014-15 imports were projected at 3,336,000 tons, up 460,000 tons, or 16%, from September based on a like increase in projected imports from Mexico, which were raised 42% to 1,549,000 tons.

Total sugar supply in 2014-15, which began Oct. 1, 2014, was projected at 13,689,000 tons, up 526,000 tons, or 4%, from September but down 587,000 tons, or 4%, from 14,276,000 tons in 2013-14, which was reduced 86,000 tons due to a 2,000-ton reduction in Texas cane sugar production, a 72,000-ton reduction in tariff rate quota imports and a 12,000-ton reduction in imports from Mexico, which were estimated at 2,124,000 tons, the same as in 2012-13.

Total sugar use in 2014-15 was projected at 12,135,000 tons, unchanged from September but down 331,000 tons, or 3%, from 12,466,000 tons in 2013-14.

For Mexico, the U.S.D.A. raised 2013-14 ending stocks 71,000 tonnes, actual weight, to 685,000 tons, based on a 1,000-tonne increase in production, at 6,021,000 tonnes, a 96,000-tonne reduction in imports, at 130,000 tonnes, a 156,000-tonne reduction in domestic consumption, at 4,428,000 tonnes, and a 10,000-tonne reduction in exports, at 2,498,000 tonnes.

For 2014-15, the U.S.D.A. reduced ending stocks by 11,000 tonnes, to 936,000 tonnes, based on a 71,000-tonne increase in beginning stocks, a 52,000-tonne reduction in domestic consumption, at 4,638,000 tonnes, and a 134,000-tonne increase in exports, at 1,650,000 tonnes.

“(For 2014-15) exports to non-U.S. destinations based on contracts are reduced by 260,000 tonnes to 325,000 tonnes,” the U.S.D.A. said. “FEESA, the entity which runs the nine government-owned mills in Mexico, announced that it had renegotiated one earlier contract and is committed to export 40,000 tonnes instead of the earlier negotiated 300,000 tonnes. As a consequence, exports to the United States are residually calculated at 1.325 million tonnes, up 394,000 tonnes.”
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