U.S.D.A. lowers wheat carryover forecast to 644 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON – The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 10 forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 644 million bus, down 10 million bus from the October projection but up 54 million bus, or 9%, from 590 million bus in 2014. The adjustment resulted from a 10-million-bu reduction in the 2014-15 wheat supply forecast to 2,785 million bus. The 2013-14 wheat supply was 8% larger at 3,021 million bus.

The lower supply forecast was attributed to a lower 2014 wheat production estimate. The U.S.D.A. estimated wheat production this year at 2,026 million bus, down 9 million bus from the October estimate and down 109 million bus, or 5%, from 2,135 million bus in 2013.

The U.S.D.A. said the production estimate was lowered from that contained in the Small Grains Summary 2014 report issued in late September, which was the number carried into the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, because of a resurvey of production estimates in certain states. “Adjustments to production in these states, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for hard red spring wheat and durum.”

The revised production estimate for hard red spring wheat was 556 million bus, down 5 million bus from the September estimate and compared with 491 million bus last year. The revised durum estimate was 53 million bus, down 4 million bus from September and compared with 58 million bus in 2013.

The production estimates for the other wheat classes were unchanged with hard red winter wheat at 738 million bus (747 million in 2013), soft red winter at 455 million bus (568 million in 2013), and white wheat at 224 million bus (271 million in 2013).

With the exception of the production and supply numbers, all other all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2014-15 were unchanged with imports at 170 million bus (169 million in 2013-14), seed use at 76 million bus (77 million in 2013-14), food use at a record 960 million bus (951 million bus in 2013-14), feed and residual use at 180 million bus (228 million bus in 2013-14) and exports at 925 million bus (1,176 million in 2013-14).

The U.S.D.A. narrowed its forecast range for the average farm price of wheat in 2014-15 to $5.65@6.15 per bu from $5.55@6.25 a bu in October. That compares with an average price of $6.87 a bu in 2013-14.

Carryover adjustments by class were forecast for hard red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat and durum. The hard red winter wheat carryover forecast was raised 20 million bus, to 212 million bus, as the export forecast was lowered by 20 million bus, to 320 million bus. The hard red spring wheat carryover was lowered 30 million bus, to 217 million bus, as the 2014-15 export forecast was raised 20 million bus, to 280 million bus, production was lowered 5 million bus, and imports were lowered 5 million bus, to 80 million bus. The durum carryover was forecast at 17 million bus, up 1 million bus from September, as the production forecast was lowered 4 million bus, to 53 million, and imports were raised 5 million bus, to 55 million bus.
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