2015 wheat carryover forecast raised 10 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Dec. 10 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2015, at 654 million bus, up 10 million bus from the November projection and up 64 million bus, or 11%, from 590 million bus in 2014. The increase from the November number was attributed to a 10-million-bu increase in the 2014-15 wheat imports forecast to a record 180 million tonnes as all other supply-and-demand estimates for the current year were unchanged.

The U.S.D.A. noted the entire increase in its import forecast was due to greater durum imports from Canada. Durum imports in 2014-15 now were forecast at 65 million bus compared with 44 million bus in 2013-14.

With the increase in imports forecast for the current year, the U.S.D.A. forecast the U.S. wheat supply in 2014-15 at 2,795 million bus, down 226 million bus, or 7%, from 3,021 million bus in 2013-14 and compared with 3,118 million bus in 2012-13. The wheat production estimate for 2014 remained unchanged at 2,026 million bus.

Wheat disappearance in 2014-15 was forecast at 2,141 million bus, unchanged from the November projection but down 291 million bus, or 12%, from 2,432 million bus in the previous year. Food use of wheat was forecast at a record 960 million bus, unchanged from November and up 9 million bus from 2013-14. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 76 million bus, unchanged from November and down 1 million bus from 2013-14. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2014-15 was forecast at 180 million bus, unchanged from November but down 48 million bus, or 21%, from 228 million bus in 2013-14.

Wheat exports in 2014-15 were forecast at 925 million bus, unchanged from November but down 251 million bus, or 21%, from 1,176 million bus in 2013-14. While the all-wheat export forecast was unchanged, there were adjustments by class. The hard red winter wheat export forecast was lowered 15 million bus, to 305 million bus, the hard red spring wheat export forecast was raised 5 million bus, to 285 million bus, the white wheat export forecast was raised 5 million bus, to 150 million bus, and the durum export forecast was raised 5 million bus, to 30 million bus. The soft red winter wheat export forecast was unchanged at 155 million bus.

The 2015 hard red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 227 million bus, up 15 million bus from the November projection but down 9 million bus from 2014. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 212 million bus, down 5 million bus from November but up 43 million bus, or 25%, from 169 million bus in 2014. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 162 million bus, unchanged from November but up 49 million bus, or 43%, from 113 million bus in 2014. The 2015 white wheat carryover was forecast at 32 million bus, down 5 million bus from November and down 13 million bus from 50 million bus in 2014. The durum carryover was forecast at 22 million bus, up 5 million bus from November and equal to the 2014 carryover.
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