U.S.D.A. raises record world wheat production forecast

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast global 2014-15 wheat production at a record 722.18 million tonnes, up 2.32 million tonnes from 719.86 million tonnes as the November projection and up 7.41 million tonnes or 1%, from 714.77 million tonnes in 2013-14, the previous record.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 194.90 million tonnes compared with 192.90 million tonnes as projected in November and 185.30 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14. The average pre-report trade estimate was 192 million tonnes for 2014-15.

World wheat consumption for 2014-15 was projected at 712.58 million tonnes, compared with 712.69 million tonnes in November and 703.93 million tonnes in 2013-14, and world exports were projected at 158.04 million tonnes compared with 154.92 million tonnes as the November forecast and 165.80 million tonnes last year.

“Global wheat consumption for 2014-15 is down slightly,” the U.S.D.A. said. “The biggest change is a 1.5-million-tonne decrease in European Union wheat feeding on larger coarse grain supplies and higher wheat exports. Canada wheat feeding is raised 0.5 million tonnes on the larger crop. Global ending stocks are projected 2 million tonnes higher mostly on increases for Canada, the E.U., and Russia.”

World corn ending stocks in 2014-15 were projected at 192.20 million tonnes compared with 191.50 million tonnes as projected in November and 172.84 million tonnes in 2013-14. The average of pre-report trade expectations for 2014-15 was 191.3 million tonnes.

“Global ending stocks at projected 0.7 million tonnes higher mostly reflecting the larger China corn crop,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Small reductions in U.S. and E.U. corn stocks partly offset the increase for China.”

World soybean ending stocks for 2014-15 were projected at 89.87 million tonnes, compared with 90.28 million tonnes as the November forecast and 66.58 million tonnes in 2013-14. The average of pre-report trade expectations was 89.9 million tonnes for 2014-15.

Ending soybean stocks for 2013-14 in the United States were projected at 11.16 million tonnes in December compared with 12.25 million tonnes as the November forecast and 2.5 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14. Ending stocks for 2014-15 in Brazil were projected at 24.38 million tonnes compared with 23.95 million tonnes as the November outlook.

China was projected to import 74 million tonnes of soybeans in 2014-15, unchanged from November and up from 70.36 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

“Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 million tonnes with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine and Paraguay,” the U.S.D.A. said.
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