U.S.D.A. raises wheat carryover forecast 5 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Feb. 10 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2015, at 692 million bus, up 5 million bus from the January projection and up 102 million bus, or 17%, from 590 million bus in 2014. The adjustment resulted from a lowering in the U.S.D.A’s wheat export forecast for 2014-15, which narrowly offset a reduced wheat import forecast for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for 2014-15 wheat imports to 160 million bus, down 20 million bus from the January projection of 180 million bus. The reduced import forecast meant the record for U.S. wheat imports would remain 169 million bus, which was the import total for 2013-14. The U.S.D.A. said its forecast was lowered because of the slower-than-expected pace of imports to date this year.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the U.S. wheat supply in 2014-15 at 2,776 million bus, down 20 million bus from the January projection and down 245 million bus, or 8%, from 3,021 million bus in 2013-14. The U.S.D.A.’s 2014 wheat production estimate was unchanged at 2,026 million bus, down 109 million bus, or 5%, from 2,135 million bus in 2013, and the 2014-15 carry-in was estimated 590 million bus, also unchanged.

The U.S.D.A. forecast wheat exports in 2014-15 at 900 million bus, down 25 million bus from the January projection and down 276 million bus, or 23%, from 1,176 million bus in 2013-14. The U.S.D.A. said the reduction in the export forecast was made because of “increased competition from the European Union and the recent strengthening of the dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive.”

The U.S.D.A.’s projection for domestic use of wheat in 2014-15 remained 1,184 million bus, down 71 million bus, or 6%, from 1,255 million bus in 2013-14. The U.S.D.A. projected 2014-15 food use of wheat at a record 960 million bus, unchanged from the January forecast and up 8 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use was forecast at 150 million bus, unchanged from January but down 76 million bus, or 34%, from 226 million bus in 2013-14. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 74 million bus, unchanged from January but down 3 million bus from the previous year.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2014-15 at $5.85@6.15 a bu compared with the January projection of $5.90@6.30 a bu and with $6.87 a bu in 2013-14 and $7.77 a bu in 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A. made several adjustments to its by-class forecasts.

The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2015 was forecast at 268 million bus, up 15 million bus from the January projection and compared with 237 million bus in 2014. The U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for domestic use of hard red winter wheat in 2014-15 by 5 million bus, to 433 million bus, which compared with 426 million bus in 2013-14. At the same time, the U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for hard red winter wheat exports in 2014-15 by 20 million bus, to 285 million bus, which compared with 446 million bus in 2013-14.

The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 190 million bus, down 20 million bus from the January projection and compared with 169 million bus in 2014. The U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for hard red spring wheat imports to 70 million bus, down 10 million bus from the January projection and compared with a record 77 million bus in 2013-14. At the same time, the U.S.D.A. raised its hard red spring wheat export forecast by 10 million bus, to 295 million bus, which compared with 246 million bus in 2013-14.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2015 soft red winter wheat carryover at 180 million bus, up 10 million bus from the January projection as the export forecast for 2014-15 was lowered by 10 million bus, to 145 million bus.

The U.S.D.A.’s projection for the 2015 white wheat carryover was unchanged at 33 million bus, down 17 million bus from 2014. All white wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2014-15 were unchanged from January.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2015 durum carryover at 22 million bus, unchanged from the January projection and unchanged from 2014. At the same time, the U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for durum imports in 2014-15 by 10 million bus, to 55 million bus. It also lowered its domestic durum usage forecast for 2014-15 by 5 million bus, to 83 million bus, and its export forecast by 5 million bus, to 25 million bus.
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