U.S.D.A. lowers 2015 wheat carryover by 1 million bus

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 10 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2015, at 691 million bus, down 1 million bus from the February projection and up 101 million bus, or 17%, from 590 million bus in 2014. The adjustment was the result of an increase of 1 million bus in projected seed use for 2014-15. Trade estimates of 2014-15 domestic carryout averaged 696 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. said the forecast of higher seed use was based on the 2015 planted area projection released at the February Agricultural Outlook Forum.

As a result of the March adjustment in projected seed use, domestic use in 2014-15 was forecast at 2,085 million bus for 2014-15, up 1 million bus from 2,084 million bus in February and down 70 million us, or about 6%, from 1,255 million bus in 2014-15.

The U.S.D.A.’s 2014 domestic wheat production estimate was unchanged at 2,026 million bus, down 109 milion bus, or 5%, from 2,135 million bus in 2013-14. The 2014-15 carry-in was estimated at 590 million bus, also unchanged.

The season-average farm price range for U.S. wheat in 2014-15 was forecast  in March  at $5.90@6.10 a bu, compared with the February projection of $5.85@6.15 a bu, $6.87 a bu in 2013-14 and $7.77 a bu in 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2014-15 carryover of corn at 1,777 million bus, down 50 million bus from the February projection and up 545 million bus, or 44%, from the estimate of 1,232 million bus in 2013-14. Trade estimates for domestic corn carryover averaged 1,822 million bus.

The projected lower carryover reflected an upward adjustment in exports of 50 million bus to 1,800 million bus in the March forecast “based on commitments to date and higher projected global demand,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean carryover remained unchanged in the March U.S.D.A. projection at 385 million bus, up about 300% from 92 million bus estimated in 2013-14. Trade estimates for domestic soybean carryover averaged 379 million bus.
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