I.G.C. raises forecast for 2015-16 world wheat production

by Jay Sjerven
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LONDON — The International Grains Council on May 28 projected 2015-16 world wheat production at 715 million tonnes, up 10 million tonnes from its April projection but down 6 million tonnes from a record 721 million tonnes in 2014-15. If the projection holds true, the 2015-16 crop would be the world’s second largest. The I.G.C. pointed out since its April projections, it raised its forecasts for wheat production in the European Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States (former-Soviet Union), China and Morocco. Production increases projected for those countries more than offset lower production forecasts for the United States, India and Pakistan.

World wheat consumption in 2015-16 was projected at a record 715 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from the April outlook and compared with a forecast 710 million tonnes in 2014-15, the current record. The I.G.C. noted a projected increase in food and industrial demand for wheat would be partly offset by declines in feed and other uses. Consumption as human food was projected at 484 million tonnes, up 1.2% from 2014-15.

World trade in wheat in 2015-16 was projected at 149 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from the I.G.C.’s April projection, down 4 million tonnes from 153 million tonnes in 2014-15 and compared with a record 156 million tonnes in 2013-14. The I.G.C. said the lower world trade projection for 2015-16 was because of weaker import needs in Near East Asia, particularly in Turkey, the E.U. and North Africa.

The I.G.C. projected world wheat ending stocks for 2015-16 at 200 million tonnes, up 6 million tonnes from the April projection and equal to the forecast 2014-15 ending stocks.
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