U.S. 2016 wheat carryover up 3% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 10 forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2016, at 814 million bus, up 21 million bus, or 3%, from 793 million bus as projected in May and up 102 million bus, or 14%, from 712 million bus estimated for 2015. The U.S.D.A.’s 2016 carryover number was above the average of pre-report trade expectations at 791 million bus. The 2015 carryover estimate was below the average trade guess at 715 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the 2015-16 wheat supply at 2,973 million bus, up 36 million bus from the May projection and up 209 million bus, or 8%, from 2,764 million bus in 2014-15. The U.S.D.A. projected 2015 wheat production at 2,121 million bus, up 34 million bus from the May forecast and up 5% from 2,026 million bus in 2014. The production forecast was based on a harvested area projected at 48 million acres, up 3% from 46.4 million in 2014, and an average yield at 44.2 bus an acre, up 0.7 million bus per acre from the May outlook and compared with 43.7 bus per acre last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2015-16 were projected at 140 million bus, unchanged from the May forecast and down 8 million bus from 2014-15.

Domestic use of wheat in 2015-16 was projected at 1,234 million bus, up 15 million bus from the May outlook and up 22 million bus, or 3%, from 1,197 million bus in 2014-15 based on higher exports, food use and feed and residual use projections.

Food use of wheat in 2015-16 was projected at a record 967 million bus, unchanged from May and up 1% from 960 million bus in 2014-15. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 72 million bus, unchanged from May and down 6% from 77 million bus in 2014-15. Feed and residual use in 2015-16 was projected at 195 million bus, up 15 million bus from May and up 35 million bus, or 22%, from 160 million bus in 2014-15.

Wheat exporters in 2015-16 were projected at 925 million bus, unchanged from May and up 70 million bus, or 8%, from 855 million bus in the previous year. The 2014-15 outgo was the smallest since 849 million bus were exported in 2002-03.

Total wheat disappearance in 2015-16 was forecast at 2,159 million bus, up 15 million bus from the May projection and up 107 million bus, or 5%, from 2,052 million bus in 2014-15.

The average farm price of wheat in 2015-16 was forecast at $4.40@5.40 a bu, down 10c from the May projected range and compared with $6 a bu in 2014-15 and $6.87 a bu in 2013-14.

Initial 2015-16 supply-and-demand forecasts by wheat class will be issued in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 1,771 million bus, up 25 million bus from the May forecast but down 105 million bus, or 6%, from an upwardly revised forecast of 1,876 million bus in 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 corn carryover was above the average of pre-report trade forecasts at 1,758 million bus. The 2014-15 corn carryover forecast was above the average of trade expectations of 1,858 million bus.

The U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 475 million bus, down 25 million bus from the May outlook but up 145 million bus, or 44%, from a downwardly revised forecast for 2015 at 330 million bus. The U.S.D.A.’s 2016 soybean carryover number was below the average of pre-report trade expectations near 485 million bus. The 2015 carryover forecast was below the trade average projection at 342 million bus.

The U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2016, was projected at 48.4 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from the May forecast and up 3 million cwts, or 2%, from 45.4 million cwts as the forecast for 2015.
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