All wheat production seen up 6% from 2014

by Ron Sterk
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U.S. 2015 all wheat production was forecast at 2,148 million bus, up 6% from 2,026 million bus in 2014.

WASHINGTON — U.S. 2015 all wheat production was forecast at 2,148 million bus, up 6% from 2,026 million bus in 2014, the U.S.D.A. said in its July 10 Crop Production report. The forecast was near the average trade expectation of 2,149 million bus.

The all wheat number included the first survey-based durum and other spring wheat forecasts for the season, as well as revised winter wheat estimates.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 617 million bus, up 4% from 595 million bus in 2014. The total included hard red spring wheat production forecast at 573 million bus, up 3% from 2014. Durum production was forecast at 75.5 million bus, up 42% from 53 million bus in 2014.

Winter wheat production was estimated at 1,455.5 million bus, down 3% from the U.S.D.A.’s June estimate of 1,505 million bus, up 6% from 1,378 million bus in 2014 and below the trade average of 1,485 million bus. The winter wheat estimate included hard red production at 866 million bus, down 2% from 887 million bus in June, soft red at 393 million bus, down 5% from 414 million bus in June and white at 196 million bus, down 4% from 204 million bus in June.

In its July 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A.  projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2016, at 842 million bus, up 3% from 814 million bus as the June projection and compared with 753 million bus on June 1, 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 855 million bus.

Wheat-by-class carryover on June 1, 2016, was projected at 364 million bu for hard red winter, compared with 294 million bus on June 1, 2015; at 224 million bus for hard red spring, compared with 213 million bus; at 175 million bus for soft red winter, compared with 153 million bus; at 54 million bus for white wheat, compared with 67 million bus; and at 23 million bus for durum, compared with 26 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2015-16 world wheat production at 721.96 million tonnes, up 410,000 tonnes from 721.55 million tonnes projected in June and compared with record high production of 725.92 million tonnes in 2014-15.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 1,599 million bus, down 10% from 1,771 million bus as the June forecast and compared with 1,779 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 corn carryover number was above the trade average of 1,508 million bus. The U.S.D.A. projected 2015 corn production at 13,530 million bus, down 100 million bus from its June projection based on harvested area of 81.1 million acres, down 600,000 acres from June, and average yield of 166.8 bus an acre, unchanged from June.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 425 million bus, down 11% from 475 million bus as the June forecast and compared with 255 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 soybean carryover number was above the trade average of 378 million bus. Soybean production in 2015 was projected at 3,885 million bus, up 35 million bus from the June projection based on harvested area of 84.4 million acres, up 700,000 acres from June, and average yield of 46 bus an acre, unchanged from June.

Corn and soybean futures prices were trading modestly higher after the reports were released at 11:00 a.m. Central time, while wheat futures were mixed.
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