U.S. 2016 wheat carryover up 1% from July

by Laura Lloyd
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The US.D.A. forecasts the carryover of wheat in the U.S. at 850 million bus.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2016, at 850 million bus, up 8 million bus, or about 1%, from 842 million bus projected in July and up 102 million bus, or 14%, from 773 million bus in 2015.  Ending stocks were forecast to be the largest since 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2016 wheat carryover number was below the average of pre-report trade expectation at 858 million bus.

The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 1,713 million bus, up 114 million bus, or 6%, from 1,599 million bus projected in July but down 59 million bus, or 3%, from 1,772 million bus forecast in 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 corn carryover was above the pre-report trade average expectation of 1,427 million bus, and the 2015 carryover was below average trade expectations of 1,781 million bus.

The U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 470 million bus, up 45 million bus, or 11%, from 425 million bus in July and up 96% from 240 million bus forecast in 2015. The 2016 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was well above the average trade expectation near 305 million bus. The 2015 U.S.D.A. number was below the trade average of 247 million bus.

The rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2016, was projected at 42.4 million cwts, up 4 million cwts, or 10%, from 38.4 million cwts in July but down 5.5 million cwts from 47.9 million cwts in 2015.

World wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 221.47 million tonnes for 2015-16, compared with 209.66 million in 2014-15. World corn ending stocks were projected at 195.09 million tonnes for 2015-16, compared with 197.42 forecast for 2014-15. Global 2015-16 soybean ending stocks were projected at 86.88 million tonnes, compared with 80.57 million tonnes forecast for the current year.
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