U.S.D.A. forecasts 2017 wheat carryover at 1,105 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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U.S.D.A. forecasts 2017 wheat carryover at 1,105 million bus
Would be largest total since 1988.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 12 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2017, at 1,105 million bus, up 55 million bus from the June projection and up 124 million bus, or 13%, from 981 million bus in 2016. If the forecast is realized, the 2017 wheat carryover would be the largest since 1,261 million bus in 1988.

The U.S. wheat supply in 2016-17 was forecast at 3,362 million bus, up 180 million bus from the June outlook and up 443 million bus, or 15%, from 2,919 million bus in the previous year. The wheat supply this year was forecast to be the largest since 3,373 million bus in 1988-89. The U.S.D.A. estimated 2016-17 wheat beginning stocks on June 1 at 981 million bus, unchanged from the quarterly Grain Stocks report issued on June 30 and up 1 million bus from the U.S.D.A.’s June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The 2016 wheat crop was forecast at 2,261 million bus, up 184 million bus, or 9%, from the June projection and up 209 million bus, or 10%, from 2,052 million bus in 2015. U.S. 2016-17 wheat imports were forecast at 120 million bus, down 5 million bus from June but up 5 million bus from 115 million bus in 2015-16.

The U.S.D.A. forecast wheat disappearance in 2016-17 at 2,257 million bus, up 125 million bus from the June projection and up 320 million bus, or 17%, from 1,937 million bus in 2015-16.

Domestic food use of wheat was forecast at a record 963 million bus, unchanged from June and up 3 million bus from 960 million bus in 2015-16, the current record. Feed and residual use of wheat was forecast at 300 million bus, up 100 million from the June projection and up 168 million bus from the previous year. The U.S.D.A. attributed the increase in its feed and residual use forecast to “the larger supplies and increased price competitiveness with corn.” Seed use of wheat in 2016-17 was forecast at 69 million bus, unchanged from June, up 1 million bus from 2015-16 but down 10 million from 79 million bus in 2014-15.

U.S. wheat exports in 2016-17 were forecast at 925 million bus, up 25 million from the June outlook and up 148 million bus, or 19%, from the historically low 777 million bus in 2015-16. The 2015-16 export total was the smallest since 610 million bus in 1971-72, which was the marketing year before the U.S.-Soviet wheat deal.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2016-17 to fall within a range from $3.40 to $4.20 a bu, down 20c from the range forecast in June and compared with $4.89 in 2015-16 and $5.99 a bu in 2014-15.

Standing out in the U.S.D.A.’s initial wheat supply-and-demand forecasts by class was the outlook for hard red winter wheat. The U.S.D.A. forecast the hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2017, at 578 million bus, up 132 million bus, or 30%, from 446 million bus in 2016. It would be the largest June 1 hard red winter wheat inventory since 973 million bus in 1987 and would compare with 327 million bus as the recent five-year average.

The spring wheat 2017 carryover was forecast at 254 million bus, down 24 million bus from 2016 and compared with 195 million bus as the five-year average.

The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 152 million bus, down 5 million bus from 2016 and compared with 154 million bus in 2015 and the recent five-year average at 147 million bus.

The white wheat carryover on June 1, 2017, was forecast at 89 million bus, up 15 million bus from 2016 and compared with 64 million bus as the recent five-year average. It would be the largest June 1 white wheat inventory since 91 million bus in 2000.

The 2017 durum carryover was forecast at 33 million bus, up 5 million bus from 2016 and compared with 25 million bus as the recent five-year average. 
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