U.S. corn crop down slightly from August

by Ron Sterk
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U.S. corn production chart

WASHINGTON — U.S. 2016 corn production was forecast at 15,093 million bus, down 60 million bus from 15,153 million bus forecast in August but up 11% from 13,601 million bus in 2015, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Sept. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 4,201 million bus, up 3% from 4,060 million bus forecast in August and up 7% from 3,929 million bus last year.

Based on Sept. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 174.4 bus an acre, down 0.7 bus from the August forecast but up 6 bus from 168.4 bus an acre in 2015, the U.S.D.A. said. Soybean yield was forecast at 50.6 bus an acre, up 1.7 bus from August and up 2.6 bus from 48 bus an acre in 2015.

If realized, 2016 yield and production would be record high for both corn and soybeans, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. soybean production chart

The U.S.D.A. corn production forecast was above the pre-report trade average of 14,974 million bus and yield was above the trade average of 172.9 bus an acre. The U.S.D.A. soybean production number also was above the pre-report average of 4,100 million bus and the trade yield average of 49.4 bus an acre.

In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2017, at 2,384 million bus, down 25 million bus from its August forecast and compared with 1,716 million bus on Sept. 1, 2016. The Sept. 1, 2017, soybean carryover was forecast at 365 million bus, up 35 million bus from August and compared with 195 million bus in 2016.

The U.S.D.A. 2016-17 corn and soybean carryover numbers were above pre-report trade averages of 2,322 million bus for corn and 333 million bus for soybeans.

Corn and soy complex futures traded lower immediately after the U.S.D.A. reports were released.

Updated 2016 production estimates for wheat and other small grains will be released Sept. 30 in the U.S.D.A.’s annual Small Grains Summary.
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