U.S.D.A. forecasts 2018 wheat carryover at 914 million bus

by Jay Sjerven
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Wheat production chart
 

 

WASHINGTON — In its initial wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2017-18, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 10 projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2018, at 914 million bus, down 245 million bus, or 21%, from an upwardly revised 1,159 million bus as the forecast for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. forecast all-wheat production in 2017 at 1,820 million bus, down 490 million bus, or 21%, from 2,310 million bus in 2016. The U.S.D.A. commented, “The year-to-year decline is due to a sharp reduction in planted area and projected lower yields. The all-wheat yield is projected at 47.2 bus per acre, down 10% from last year’s record.”

In forecasting 2017 all-wheat production, the U.S.D.A. considered its initial survey-based winter wheat production forecast for 2017 at 1,246 million bus and a combined spring wheat and durum production forecast of 574 million bus, based on spring wheat and durum planted area forecasts as indicated in the Prospective Plantings report issued at the end of March, average abandonment and trendline yields. The U.S.D.A. noted the combined spring wheat and durum production for 2017 was projected to decline 10% from 2016.

The U.S.D.A. forecast wheat imports in 2017-18 at 125 million bus, up 10 million bus from the current year.

The total 2017-18 wheat supply was forecast at 3,105 million bus, down 295 million bus, or 9%, from 3,400 million bus in 2016-17.

Wheat ending stocks chart
 

 

Wheat disappearance in 2017-18 was forecast at 2,191 million bus, down 50 million bus from 2,241 million bus as the forecast for 2016-17.

Food use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 955 million bus, the same as the forecast for the current year. Seed use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 66 million bus, up 5 million bus from 2016-17. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 170 million bus, down 20 million from the forecast for 2016-17.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2017-18 wheat exports at 1,000 million bus, down from 1,035 million bus as the forecast for the current year.

The average farm price of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at $3.85@4.65 a bu compared with $3.90 a bu as the estimate for 2016-17.

The U.S.D.A. will issue its first wheat supply-and-demand forecasts by class in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand report. 
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