U.S. durum down 45%, spring wheat down 21%

by Ron Sterk
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Wheat
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2017 U.S. durum wheat production down 45% from 2016, spring wheat other than durum down 21% and winter wheat down 23%.
 

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 12 Crop Production report forecast 2017 U.S. durum wheat production down 45% from 2016, spring wheat other than durum down 21% and winter wheat down 23%, although the latter was up 2% from the June forecast.

Durum production was forecast at 57,495,000 bus, down 45% from 104,116,000 bus in 2016, based on a forecast yield of 30.9 bus an acre, down 13.1 bus from last year, and expected harvested area of 1.86 million acres, unchanged from the June 30 Acreage report but down 21% from 2016. If realized, durum production would be the lowest since 54,056,000 bus in 2014.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 422,880,000 bus, down 21% from 534,027,000 bus in 2016, based on a yield of 40.3 bus an acre, down 6.9 bus from last year, and harvested area of 10.5 million acres, unchanged from June but down 7% from last year. Of the total, 385 million bus was hard red spring wheat, down 22% from 2016.

Winter wheat production was estimated at 1,279,363,000 bus, up 2% from the June forecast but down 23% from 1,671,532,000 bus in 2016, based on an average yield of 49.7 bus an acre, up 0.8 bu from June but down 5.6 bus from last year, and harvested area of 25.8 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 15% from 2016. If realized, the average yield would be the second highest on record after 2016, the U.S.D.A. said. Of the total, 758 million bus was hard red winter wheat, up 2% from June, 306 million bus was soft red winter, up 3%, and white was 216 million bus, up 3%, including 198 million bus of soft white winter and 18.5 million bus of hard white.

All wheat production in 2017 was forecast at 1,759,738,000 bus, down 549,937,000 bus, or 24%, from 2,309,675,000 bus in 2016.

The U.S.D.A. forecasts for all wheat, winter wheat and other spring wheat were above the average of trade expectations while the durum number was below.

Kansas City and Chicago winter wheat futures were down about 10c to 15c a bu and Minneapolis spring wheat futures were down about 1c to 8c a bu after the Crop Report on July 12. Minneapolis futures have soared to multi-year highs recently due to drought in the key spring wheat production areas of Montana and North and South Dakota.

U.S. oats production was forecast at 53,674,000 bus, down 17% from 2016, based on an average yield of 61 bus an acre, down 5 bus, and harvested area of 880,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 10% from 2016. If realized, production would be the second lowest in records back to 1866 after 50,126,000 bus in 2011.

Barley production was forecast at 142,967,000 bus, down 28% from 2016, based on an average yield of 73.5 bus an acre, down 4.4 bus from last year, and harvested area of 1.95 million acres, unchanged from June but down 24% from last year. If realized, 2017 production would be the lowest since 117,390,000 bus in 1934.

It was the first survey-based forecasts for durum, other spring wheat, barley and oats. Estimates were based on conditions as of July 1.
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