Global wheat carryover seen headed to all-time high

by Josh Sosland
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Wheat carryover
Ending stocks of wheat in 2018 are projected at a record 248 million tonnes.
 

LONDON — Ending stocks of wheat in 2018 are projected at a record 248 million tonnes in an Aug. 24 update from the International Grains Council. The forecast is up 7 million tonnes from the July forecast of 241 million and would be up 2% from 244 million tonnes in 2017. The 2018 carryover would be significantly larger than 226 million tonnes in 2016 and 206 million in 2015.

The increase from July was driven by a 10-million-tonne increase in projected wheat production totaling 742 million tonnes in 2017-18, a crop still slightly smaller than the record 754 million tonnes in 2016-17.

The wheat carryover increase was attributed by the I.G.C. to “an increasingly favorable outlook for the Black Sea region, most notably in Russia, where wheat and barley harvest results continued to exceed expectations.”

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