U.S. corn outturn down 7%, soybeans up 2% from 2016

by Ron Sterk
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U.S. corn production chart

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Aug. 10 Crop Production report forecast 2017 U.S. production of corn at 14,153 million bus, down 7% from 2016, soybeans at 4,381 million bus, up 2%, and all wheat at 1,739 million bus, down 1% from July and down 25% from 2016.

Average corn yield in 2017 was forecast at 169.5 bus an acre, down 3% from 174.6 bus in 2016. Harvested area of corn was forecast at 83.5 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 4% from last year. The average soybean yield was forecast at 49.4 bus an acre, down 5% from 52.1 bus last year, with harvested area forecast at a record high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from June but up 7% from 2016.

If realized, soybean production would be record high, topping the previous record of 4,307 million bus in 2016. Corn production would be the third highest on record after last year’s record of 15,148 million bus and 14,216 million bus in 2014.

U.S. soybean production chart

Production of spring wheat other than durum was estimated at 401,554,000 bus, down 5% from the July forecast and down 25% from 534,027,000 bus in 2016 based on a yield of 38.3 bus an acre, down 2 bus from July and down 8.9 bus from last year, and harvested area of 10.5 million acres, unchanged from June but down 7% from last year.

U.S. durum production was forecast at 50,535,0000 bus, down 12% from July and down 51% from 104,116,000 bus in 2016. Average yield was forecast at 27.2 bus an acre, down 3.7 bus from July and down 16.8 bus from 2016, with harvested area at 1.86 million acres, unchanged from July but down 21% from a year ago.

 Winter wheat outturn was estimated at 1,287,133,000 bus, up 1% from July but down 23% from 1,671,532,000 bus in 2016. Average yield was estimated at 50.0 bus an acre, up 0.3 bu from July but down 5.3 bus from 2016. Harvested area was estimated at 25.8 million acres, unchanged from July but down 15% from 2016.

U.S. all wheat production chart

The U.S.D.A. forecasts for corn, soybeans, all wheat, winter wheat and other spring wheat all were above the average of trade expectations while the durum forecast was below the trade average.

Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded sharply lower immediately after the U.S.D.A. report was released.

It was the first survey-based forecasts for corn and soybeans. Estimates were based on conditions as of Aug. 1. 
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